AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas Investment Talks: Nigeria’s NUPRC opened talks with Indonesia on upstream investment as Pertamina signals interest in the 2026 licensing round, with both sides stressing energy security and resource development. Refining Push: Dangote Refinery says it is targeting 1.4m bpd expansion by 2029, with engineering done and equipment ordered, aiming to cut reliance on Nigerian crude. Power Storage in Morocco: Envision Energy completed energisation of a 25MW/125MWh lithium battery system at OCP Green Energy’s Benguerir site, designed to shift solar output to peak demand and cut peak bills. Renewables Deal Watch: Inox Clean Energy is close to buying Actis-owned Athena Renewables for about ₹2,500 crore, lifting its operational renewable capacity toward ~5GW. Shipping & Energy Risk: The Bab el-Mandeb crisis is tightening global oil logistics as Houthis control key islands and Mocha port, raising fears of supply-chain disruption. Macro Pressure: Morgan Stanley now expects South Africa’s SARB to hike rates as renewed oil-price pressure could keep inflation above target longer.

Somalia Development Finance: Mogadishu hosted the Somalia Development Financing Forum, with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud backing a shift from short-term recovery funding to investment-led development, spotlighting energy, infrastructure and productive sectors. Kenya Fuel Security: Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi defended Kenya’s G-to-G refined fuel import deal as a response to 2022 US-dollar shortages that threatened supply, saying it helped stabilise availability and reduce FX pressure. Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Clash: Nigeria’s APC-PCC challenged Atiku Abubakar to explain the legal and fiscal basis of a proposed “production subsidy” for locally refined petrol, citing the Petroleum Industry Act’s free-market pricing rules. Nigeria Gas & Oil Market Signals: NUPRC entered strategic talks with Indonesia’s Pertamina ahead of Nigeria’s 2026 licensing round, as both target higher production and investment. South Africa Power Reliability: Eskom reported its best Energy Availability Factor in six years, with no load shedding for 490 consecutive days, supporting grid stability. Africa Investment Push: At UNGA, Sahara Group’s Dr Kola Adesina urged scaling sustainable climate finance, noting Africa’s climate needs far outstrip current flows.

TotalEnergies–GIP Deal: TotalEnergies has agreed a $1.8bn partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners to unlock value from African oil & gas midstream assets, with a throughput-based tariff over up to 15 years. Energy Transition, Built Locally: Egypt is pushing renewable industrialization with a 2,000MW wind project in the Gulf of Suez plus its first wind turbine manufacturing plant, aiming to export equipment and offer a model for faster delivery than past delays seen elsewhere. Power, Policy & Costs: Zimbabwe is moving to institutionalise regulatory impact assessments to cut the cost of doing business, after industry estimates compliance can weigh heavily on production. Fuel Prices & Subsidies: Nigeria’s Atiku Abubakar proposes a transparent production subsidy for petroleum products refined locally to lower pump prices and boost domestic refining. Methane Focus: UNEP is supporting Nigeria with webinars to strengthen measurement and management of methane emissions in agriculture under its NiMERP programme. Refining Momentum: Kenya’s President Ruto heads to New York to engage Dangote on the planned Ksh2.2tn Lamu refinery ahead of UNGA, targeting major jobs and regional energy security. Green Hydrogen Push: AfDB selected four green hydrogen projects across Egypt, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa for $20m repayable support, tied to large-scale solar/wind, electrolyzers and storage plans.

Kenya UNGA push: President William Ruto heads to New York for the 81st UN General Assembly, pitching energy and infrastructure partnerships alongside AI investment, with the headline being Kenya’s planned Sh2.2 trillion East Africa Refinery in Lamu. Nigeria petrol affordability: Dangote Refinery says it will subsidise part of transport costs from Lekki to distant markets, using more trucks to narrow regional petrol price gaps. Egypt–Iran shipping risk: Egypt’s foreign minister and a US adviser discussed the Iran crisis and stressed freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, warning that escalation could disrupt energy and food supply chains. Senegal investment drive: President Bassirou Diomaye Faye met the Corporate Council on Africa in Washington to court US capital for mining, energy, local processing and infrastructure. Gambia power crisis: Prolonged blackouts are crippling businesses and fishing, with protests erupting as outages reportedly last up to 12–48 hours. Energy industry calendar: Africa Energy Week 2026 gears up for Cape Town in October with dealmaking across upstream, power, finance and downstream. Nigeria CNG transit: Bola Tinubu will accelerate the National Affordable CNG Transit Programme from Oct. 1 to cut transport costs amid petrol and diesel pressure. Egypt BP uncertainty: Egyptian media raised questions over BP asset talks in Egypt, citing a reported Energean negotiation and lack of timely clarification.

Red Sea shipping shock: The Houthis’ moves around Bab el-Mandeb are forcing vessels to detour around Africa, adding days and sharply raising war-risk insurance and freight costs—pushing up energy and broader consumer prices. Fuel price pressure (South Africa): Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe says there are no planned interventions to cushion October fuel hikes, with under-recovery pointing to petrol and diesel increases. Fuel price pressure (Nigeria): Atiku Abubakar renewed calls for Tinubu to cut petrol and diesel prices, arguing higher fuel costs cascade into transport, food and business expenses. Dangote refinery expansion: Dangote says basic engineering is done for expansion toward 1.4m bpd by 2029, with key equipment ordered and contracts signed. Dangote IPO: The refinery’s IPO pitch promises de-risked investor returns after completion, as the offer opens to retail shareholders. Uganda skills push: Vivo Energy Uganda launches “Learning on Wheels” to train Shell station staff and independent mechanics. Zambia copper tailings deal: Konkola Copper Mines signs a $498m contract for a hydromet tailings leach plant to recover ~70,000 tonnes of copper a year. Ghana jobs programme: AfDB-backed GWYESCO targets 22,000 jobs and skills training plus MSME credit. East Africa insurance standardisation: Regulators agree on harmonised supervision templates and shared supervisory software.

Oil & Gas Expansion: Petrobras signed an exploration contract for eight offshore blocks off Côte d’Ivoire, with Petrobras Netherlands holding 90% and Petroci Holding 10%, aiming to replenish reserves in a high-potential equatorial margin. Power Reliability vs Access: A new look at Africa’s electricity challenge says the grid problem has shifted from just connections to reliability, affordability and productive power—highlighting slow progress in Sub-Saharan access and the gap between being “connected” and actually getting dependable electricity. Gas & Methane Focus: NLNG is pushing methane reduction as a revenue stream for gas producers, framing emissions cuts as business priority rather than only compliance. Fuel Price Politics (Nigeria): Atiku Abubakar renewed calls for targeted support—proposing a production subsidy for locally refined petroleum products—to lower pump prices without subsidising imports, while warning against electricity subsidy phase-out. Geopolitics Hitting Energy Routes: Houthi attacks and Saudi pipeline disruptions are tightening global crude flows, with Europe facing supply curbs and forced rerouting toward West Africa and other markets. Big Refinery Move (Nigeria): Dangote Refinery says it will double workforce as capacity expansion targets 1.4 mbpd by 2029, alongside its high-profile IPO plans.

Dangote IPO & retail frenzy: Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery opened its “people’s IPO” offering 4.1bn shares at N525, drawing huge retail demand and raising fresh questions about affordability for Nigerians who are also facing higher petrol costs. Nigeria gas flaring: NUPRC data shows Nigeria’s gas flaring rate jumped to 7.48% in August (18,350.55 MMSCF flared), reversing earlier declines despite high utilisation. Energy transition funding test: Stakeholders warn Nigeria’s $400bn net-zero pathway hinges on mobilising and deploying capital, not just choosing renewables vs oil/gas. Power & access investment: A firm invested $5m in a mini-grid in Nigeria, while Sasol is shifting its green hydrogen strategy toward Northern Cape partnerships to de-risk early development. Red Sea oil risk: Fresh Saudi-Houthi clashes and Yemen front-line fighting are again threatening Red Sea and Hormuz-linked supply, keeping global oil pressure elevated. Gabon hydrocarbon push: Oilserv signed an MoU with Gabon to develop DEF-3 and D4-5 blocks, targeting gas infrastructure for thermal power and industrial growth. Electric mobility buildout: Africa’s EV market is moving from pilots to commercial adoption, with demand for charging and battery-swapping infrastructure. World Bank capital boost: The World Bank mobilised a record $112bn in private capital for developing economies, with Africa’s share rising sharply.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthis’ rapid takeover of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Mokha and nearby islands, is tightening the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint (about 12% of world trade) and raising fears for Saudi oil routes, with attacks also hitting Saudi infrastructure and tankers. Oil Infrastructure Repair: Saudi Aramco is working to bypass damage on the critical East-West crude pipeline after drone strikes, aiming to restore at least part of capacity within days while repair timelines remain uncertain. Nigeria Oil & Gas Skills: PTDF moves to revive Port Harcourt’s skills centre, setting up a committee to close Nigeria’s oil and gas manpower gap via industry-driven training and certifications. Downstream Finance Push: Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery IPO continues to draw attention, with the Emir of Kano urging residents to take equity for long-term wealth and officials crediting deregulation for the offer’s momentum. Green Hydrogen Focus: Namibia’s UNGA agenda highlights investment and energy, while South Africa’s green hydrogen summit calls for scaling local value chains and skills for gigawatt-scale projects. Uranium Investment: The U.S. approved up to $414m financing for Niger’s Dasa uranium project, underscoring renewed Western competition for strategic fuel supplies. Energy Costs Bite: South Africa’s consumer confidence remains fragile as fuel price pressures build, with Brent above $100 and petrol/diesel expected to rise.

BRICS Diplomacy: The New Delhi BRICS summit ended without a military alliance or common currency, but delivered a 140-paragraph declaration pushing more influence for emerging economies on trade, finance, technology and cross-border payments. Red Sea Energy Shock: Saudi Arabia halted oil deliveries to Europe after a drone-damaged pipeline, tightening supply for refineries and lifting prices as buyers scramble for replacements. Nigeria Gas Push: NUPRC says Nigeria aims to expand gas output to supply up to 70% of Africa’s gas demand, leveraging 215 TCF reserves, with the plan hinging on investment and pricing. Côte d’Ivoire Offshore Deal: Eni sold a 10% stake in the Baleine project to SOCAR, reshaping ownership while boosting output plans for domestic energy demand. South Africa Fuel Pricing: Pretoria is still reviewing the formula behind its target to bring petrol and diesel to around R14/litre, as global oil volatility keeps pressure on motorists. Nigeria Energy Costs: Cooking gas rose 25% to about N1,500/kg and diesel climbed above N2,000/litre, raising operating costs for power-dependent businesses. Power Reliability in Gambia: Prolonged blackouts have hit businesses, hospitals and fish storage in Tanji, triggering protests and worsening daily hardship. Renewables & Grid Tech: EcoPhi launched its Gateway Nano for remote monitoring of distributed solar and energy assets across remote African sites. South Africa Municipal Reform: South Africa secured a $1bn New Development Bank loan to improve governance and performance of metro trading services, including electricity and energy.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Saudi Arabia cancelled some oil shipments to Europe after drone attacks damaged its key East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh more dependent on Gulf routes as Hormuz remains constrained. Upstream Deal: SOCAR completed a 10% stake acquisition in Côte d’Ivoire’s Baleine offshore oil and gas project from Eni, boosting West Africa’s upstream momentum. Ghana Oil Potential: GNPC says GIS analysis in the Tano Basin could unlock 1bn barrels of oil and 2.5tn cubic feet of gas by linking stranded resources to existing infrastructure. Gas Investment Push: Mozambique will host the Africa Gas & LNG Summit in Maputo (11-13 Nov) to drive the next phase of gas-to-value projects. Power Access in Nigeria: All On committed $5m to expand renewable mini-grids via PowerGen, targeting households with limited or unreliable electricity. Hydropower Risk Finance: A new paper backs parametric insurance revenue cover for hydro-dependent utilities across Eastern and Southern Africa. Market Watch: South Africa’s inflation expectations eased despite oil-price risks, giving the SARB potential room to hold rates.

Dangote Refinery IPO: Aliko Dangote launched the “people’s IPO” for Dangote Petroleum Refinery, aiming to raise up to $2.1bn and prioritise retail and small investors if oversubscribed, as the offer targets broader public ownership of Africa’s biggest refining bet. Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthi moves around Yemen’s Zuqar and the Bab el-Mandeb area are tightening control of a key shipping chokepoint, raising risks for global fuel flows and adding pressure to already strained supply routes. South Africa Gas Cliff: South Africa is racing to secure gas as Mozambique-linked supplies decline, with industry warning that bridging plans won’t solve the long-term risk; the issue is set to dominate the Africa Gas Forum alongside Africa Energy Indaba 2027. South Africa Hydrogen Momentum: Ramaphosa launched the first wave of green hydrogen projects, while a green hydrogen deal book highlights developer-investor push for hydrogen-enabled industrial decarbonisation. South Africa Grid & Storage Policy: A new internal appeal process is proposed for disputes involving NERSA decisions, and local battery makers secured a 15% import tariff win as they push for stronger inclusion in renewable energy programmes. Renewables Industrialisation (Egypt): Egypt signed a deal to build a 2,000MW wind project with local turbine manufacturing in the Gulf of Suez, positioning the model as a template for Africa’s renewable buildout. Oil & Services (Cyprus): Halliburton won a well services contract for Eni’s Cronos ultra-deepwater project offshore Cyprus, covering drilling, automation and completions. Kenya Port Fuel Inflows: Kenya Ports Authority says 51 vessels are set to dock at Mombasa and Lamu, including multiple fuel tankers delivering base oil, motor gasoline, fuel oil and gasoil.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthi forces seized Yemen’s Mokha and Mayyun Island near Bab el-Mandeb, tightening Iran-linked control of a key shipping chokepoint and raising fears of renewed oil and fertiliser route disruptions. Oil Supply Risk: Saudi Arabia is reportedly running out of export options after shutting its East-West pipeline and facing mounting threats to Red Sea and Hormuz routes. Maritime Cost Pressure: War-risk insurance costs are rising for Red Sea voyages, pushing up the landed cost of food grains and fertiliser for importers. Libya Output Disruption: Libya’s NOC suspended operations at three oil sites after a pipeline valve was shut by the Petroleum Facilities Guards, warning of possible force majeure. Nigeria Refining Push: Aliko Dangote opened the “people’s IPO” for his refinery, offering retail investors a 10-share bundle at ₦5,250, while Dangote said male heir succession isn’t his priority. Power & Business Climate: Dangote also flagged inconsistent policies and lack of electricity as Nigeria’s biggest manufacturing threats. Trade & Investment: Nigeria and India agreed to deepen crude oil purchases and rebuild trade toward about $15bn, with Shettima and Modi discussing energy and renewables. Regional Infrastructure: The US-backed Lobito Corridor is set to double cargo volumes to 800,000 tons in 2027 as critical minerals demand grows. Energy Transition Skills: Renaissance Africa Energy awarded start-up grants to 215 youths in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, tying entrepreneurship support to the broader energy transition.

Dangote Refinery IPO: Aliko Dangote has opened Africa’s biggest “people’s IPO” for his Lagos refinery, offering retail investors a 10-share bundle for $4 while keeping 87% control; the offer targets about $1.6bn to expand capacity. Fuel Subsidy Fallout: Nigeria’s petrol reform is biting harder as pump prices climb again, with motorists facing rising costs that ripple through transport, food, power and household spending. Energy Market Shock: Yemen conflict escalation and Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia are intensifying Red Sea and regional oil-supply risks, adding pressure to global prices and shipping economics. Power Sector Reform (SA): South Africa’s Eskom restructuring moves toward an independent transmission operator, but regulators warn cheaper power is not guaranteed and tariff outcomes depend on approved costs. Digital + Power Convergence: Schneider Electric says electrification and digitalisation are merging into the key lever for resilient infrastructure across Middle East and Africa. Kenya AI Infrastructure: Kenya’s AI ambitions are driving new data-centre plans, including a proposed $1.5bn facility with dedicated generation and cooling. Electrification in Transport: Kenya’s electric mobility is scaling beyond pilots with buses, battery-swapping for riders, local assembly and financing—aimed at reducing reliance on imported petroleum. BRICS Diplomacy: India’s New Delhi BRICS summit reaffirmed priorities including food and energy security, while debates continue over representation and internal cohesion.

Middle East Shipping Shock: Oil routes are getting longer and costlier as attacks around Hormuz and the Red Sea push exporters toward pipelines and alternative ports, but even those backups are under pressure—Saudi’s East-West pipeline was temporarily shut after a drone attack, while tanker rates hit record highs. Fuel Price Pressure: South Africa is bracing for another October petrol and diesel jump, with preliminary Central Energy Fund figures suggesting petrol could rise by about R2+ a litre and diesel by roughly R1.7–R2.1. Dangote IPO Moment: Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery kicked off its landmark IPO, aiming to raise about N2.15tn and potentially lift Aliko Dangote’s wealth by $23bn, as the refinery expands capacity and looks to extend into Kenya. West Africa Upstream Cooperation: Ghana and Uganda are deepening upstream petroleum ties through regulator peer learning on governance, regulation, operations, and local content. Uganda Oil Progress: Uganda is edging closer to commercial oil production as the China-aided Kingfisher field nears completion, with pricing of its first Pearl Sweet crude cargo set against Dated Brent. Energy Security via Renewables: South Africa’s Nelson Mandela University plans to source about 80% of power from renewables via a 10-year deal with Etana Energy plus new solar generation. Africa Food Resilience: At the Africa Food Systems Forum in Kigali, governments urged scaling irrigation—only about 5% of arable land is irrigated—warning El Niño-linked drought could worsen hunger.

Middle East Energy Security: Iran says it will unveil a temporary shipping-lane arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz with Oman for Gulf states, while Iran-UAE talks on the BRICS sidelines produced a “put the past behind” message—an attempt to ease chokepoint risk that has been driving shipping disruption and oil-price volatility. Red Sea Shockwaves: Yemen’s Houthis intensified attacks and seized/pressured key Red Sea nodes, raising fears for Bab el-Mandeb traffic and pushing up transport costs and war-risk premiums across energy supply chains. BRICS Diplomacy & Energy: At the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine; Iran urged BRICS to prevent obstruction of legitimate trade, while Egypt called for BRICS cooperation to secure food and energy and expand clean energy collaboration. Africa Fuel Costs: Ghana’s COPEC flagged higher petrol, diesel and LPG prices from Sept. 16, citing a jump in global crude and refined product prices. South Africa Utilities Pressure: Nelson Mandela Bay’s service delivery woes—water failures and power outages—highlight how infrastructure strain keeps hitting energy and public services. Kenya Power Pricing Reality Check: Kenya’s prepaid token system shows how “clean” power can still be expensive, with token prices reflecting system costs and charges beyond generation.

Red Sea Energy Shock: About 1,400 Yemenis have fled to Djibouti as Houthi advances tighten control around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key shipping route for oil and trade through the Suez corridor. Oil Market Pressure: With Saudi Arabia shutting a critical oil pipeline after drone attacks and Red Sea risks rising, analysts warn freight costs and transit times could jump sharply, feeding into higher fuel and import bills across Africa and beyond. BRICS Energy & Nuclear Safety: At the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi, leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration, flagging “deliberate attacks” on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities and calling for stability of global trade, supply chains, and energy resources. Geopolitical Restraint: BRICS also urged “maximum restraint” in West Asia, as members remain divided over Middle East conflict—an uncertainty that keeps energy security front and center for African economies.