AGP Executive Report

East Africa Energy Hub: Uganda and Tanzania endorsed a landmark MoU to build the Tanga Regional Energy Hub, shifting focus from crude exports to refining, storage, logistics, petrochemicals and cross-border energy infrastructure along Tanzania’s coast, with officials citing potential investment of $20bn+ tied to EACOP. South Africa Power Stability: Eskom says the country hit 441 consecutive days without load-shedding, citing improved generation reliability and lower unplanned outages. South Africa Gas Push: South Africa’s IPP Office says the first gas-to-power bidding process is on track, with preferred bidder announcements expected soon after advanced bid evaluations. Zimbabwe Power Reforms: Finance minister Mthuli Ncube says electricity-sector reforms are boosting investor confidence and accelerating private power generation and renewables support. Nigeria Energy Security: PINL links better pipeline security to stronger investor confidence and gas infrastructure momentum, stressing that secure assets and peaceful host communities are key. Kenya Fiscal Cushion: Kenya seeks World Bank approval for $450m (Sh58.2bn) emergency financing via CERC to cushion El Niño and Middle East shock impacts.

East Africa Energy Hub Push: Tanzania and Uganda signed MoUs to develop Tanga into a regional energy hub, with UNOC and TPDC partnering with Vitol Bahrain and leveraging the EACOP corridor to boost storage, refining, logistics and fuel trading. Gas & Power Politics: In Nigeria’s Delta, the AAC unveiled an energy plan focused on reliable electricity via gas-to-power, solar, wind and waste-to-energy to support jobs and investment. Oil Market Shock From War: Moody’s warns Middle East and North Africa sovereign credit fundamentals are turning negative as direct conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions hit hydrocarbon exports, with Gulf LNG and shipping under pressure. Black Sea Trade Disruption: Russia-Ukraine attacks are again freezing Ukraine’s Black Sea port routes, cutting grain exports and raising freight costs—an indirect hit to food and energy-linked costs across regions. Offshore Investment Outlook: Nigeria’s NUPRC says 22 offshore projects could unlock up to $50bn by 2030, aiming to reverse declining output and attract fresh capital. DRC Nuclear Supply Chain Risk: A report flags possible uranium exports hidden in legal cobalt shipments from the DRC to China, raising nuclear accounting and safety concerns. Cameroon Upstream Move: SNH and Octavia Energy completed negotiations for a Bolongo block Production Sharing Contract, paving the way for exploration.

Oil & Markets: Sinopec has ramped up purchases of Far East Russian crude to offset Middle East supply disruptions tied to the Iran war, helping it keep refinery throughput steady and sell surplus fuel profitably. Nigeria Refining & Prices: Dangote Petroleum Refinery cut ex-depot petrol to ₦1,165/litre and diesel to ₦1,570/litre as global prices slid below $80 on hopes of US-Iran de-escalation. Uganda Oil Pipeline: Bank of Uganda and the judiciary visited EACOP’s Pump Station One, with officials stressing the pipeline’s progress is central to Uganda’s budget and export earnings outlook. Power & Renewables: BloombergNEF says Sub-Saharan Africa’s renewable buildout is set to more than double by 2030, driven by cheaper solar and wind, rising demand, and storage growth. Grid & Solar-Battery Build: ACTOM says its integrated electrical supply model is supporting South Africa’s Naos-1 435MWp hybrid solar-plus-battery project. Energy Transition Skills: Tinubu commissioned Africa’s first renewable energy college in Kogi, aiming to expand local capacity for the transition. AI Demand Pressure: Bloomberg reports AI data centers’ fast-changing power needs are stressing critical equipment and raising reliability risks for grids and operators.

Infrastructure Execution: Tanzania’s Africa50/Infra for Africa meeting heard President Samia Suluhu Hassan urge leaders to move from infrastructure planning to faster delivery on the ground, with bankable projects and tighter government–financier–private sector coordination. Policy Continuity: Kenya’s DP Kithure Kindiki told the same forum that Africa’s real gap is sustained implementation, not resources—calling for long-term national development strategies insulated from political disruption. Electricity Affordability: Nigeria’s labour bloc ITUC-Africa condemned plans to phase out electricity subsidies by 2027, warning it will deepen hardship and widen inequality. Oil & Shipping Security: A cargo vessel sank in Yemen’s Red Sea waters after an attack near Hodeidah, underscoring ongoing risks to oil-linked shipping routes. Ghana Downstream Pricing: Nigeria’s private depots reportedly matched Dangote Refinery’s petrol gantry rate, with marketers pointing to room for further pump price cuts as landing costs fall. Ghana Upstream Cashflow: Tullow Oil raised its Ghana free-cash-flow outlook on stronger Jubilee output and improved realizations. Power Transition Capacity: Ethiopia’s energy minister said the country can become a regional renewable hub, citing large hydropower potential and expanding electricity exports. Energy Access Tech: Rwanda’s drone medical logistics show the promise—and limits—of last-mile delivery when roads and staffing fail.

Strait of Hormuz Watch: A US official said an Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could happen “today or tomorrow,” rattling oil markets on hopes of higher shipments, as attacks also hit shipping in the Red Sea. Nigeria Downstream Pricing: Dangote Refinery is reportedly reviewing petrol and diesel pricing after depot rates fell and competition intensified, raising the odds of another pump-price cut. South Africa Grid Reform: Eskom’s transmission unbundling remains the flashpoint as the ANC debates state assets; meanwhile NTCSA says it needs about R134bn to speed transmission expansion and connect new generation. Renewables Momentum: Sub-Saharan Africa is set to more than double clean capacity by 2030, with solar imports surging as tariffs rise and off-grid demand grows. Morocco Waste-to-Energy: Morocco signed a concession for a $1.5bn Casablanca solid waste-to-energy plant, targeting ~126MW baseload plus solar and landfill biogas. EV Shift in SA: Electrified vehicles in South Africa hit 6% of new light sales, with hybrids still leading as the market moves beyond early adopters. Power Sector Finance: Delta State unveiled a roadmap to unlock nearly 3,000MW, including plans for a state electricity regulator and rural electrification agency.

Oil & Shipping: Oil prices rebounded after a sharp sell-off tied to US-Iran talks uncertainty, with Brent around $84.8/bbl as Strait of Hormuz risks and Middle East shipping disruptions keep traders cautious. Power & Industry Finance: Nigeria’s Oando reported H1 2026 results with revenue up 20% to N2.1tn and net profit up 8% to N68.6bn, citing progress in upstream and trading plus long-term gas supply to its Bayelsa 60MW power plant. Refining & Capital Markets: Reuters says Dangote Refinery is preparing a pan-African IPO aiming to raise about $5bn by October, with talks involving multiple African exchanges. Climate Policy: Kenya unveiled a carbon market rule book, capping international carbon credit sales at a 10m tCO2e budget to 2030. Waste-to-Energy: Morocco will build a $1.5bn waste-to-energy plant in Casablanca (115MW) to process 1.5m tonnes/year, targeting methane and landfill impacts. Transport Decarbonisation: Cape Town received its first locally built MyCiTi electric bus for route testing, while South Africa’s Ilikwa 50MW solar PV hit commercial operation. Energy Security & Logistics: Sahara Upstream deployed a 380,000-barrel tanker to boost crude evacuation at Nigeria’s OML 18.

Oil Market Watch: Oil prices rebounded after a sharp sell-off tied to US-Iran tensions, with Brent rising back above $85 and WTI above $81 as traders weighed possible diplomacy against persistent supply and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz and tankers rerouting around Africa. Fuel Price Relief vs Pressure: South Africa’s petrol cut (52c/l) offers some relief, but diesel and paraffin hikes threaten to keep transport and food costs elevated for low-income households. Gas Pricing Reform: Nigeria’s NMDPRA says a full shift to a willing-buyer, willing-seller gas pricing regime is targeted within two years, contingent on infrastructure build-out and consumer safeguards. Power Sector Governance: South Africa’s Ramaphosa backs tighter enforcement of municipal electricity licence conditions as municipal arrears climb, supporting moves toward an independent transmission system operator. Clean Energy & Industry: Schneider Electric reported progress under its Impact 2030 sustainability roadmap, while South Africa’s Ramokgopa pushed China talks on rebuilding industrial capacity alongside grid and generation expansion. Nuclear Debate in Kenya: Kenya’s planned 2,000MW nuclear project near Bondo faces backlash after protests turned violent, with arrests and terrorism-related investigations. Investment & De-risking: Delta State unveiled a $100m viability gap fund to attract industrial investment, echoing calls for execution and stronger institutions. Regional Finance: ECOWAS Bank expanded West Africa financing with a €80m facility for agriculture, energy, and SMEs via Coris Holding. Energy Security Through Infrastructure: Nigeria’s NEC approved refinancing of NNPC’s $3.3bn Project Gazelle to unlock liquidity and reduce pledged crude volumes.

Oil & Shipping Risk: Threats to Middle East oil tankers are at their worst since the Iran war began, with fewer ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and more “going dark,” while Saudi crude exports keep rerouting as Red Sea pressure persists. Nigeria Refining Push: Nigeria’s midstream regulator says the country is set to become a refining hub for Africa as new private and modular refineries expand output and shift Nigeria from importing refined products to exporting them. Power Sector Integration: Ghana’s Volta River Authority chief urges African utilities to cooperate on a single electricity market and backs nuclear as a complement to renewables for reliable, cleaner power. South Africa Clean Power Buildout: South Africa’s energy leadership highlights grid and generation investment, with Seriti Green’s 155MW wind phase entering operation and China-linked energy ties strengthening. UN on Minerals & Conflict: The UN warns that illicit raw-minerals exploitation fuels armed groups and calls for responsible investment and in-country beneficiation to turn resources into development. Fuel Prices Watch: Cooking gas prices fall sharply as supply improves, while August fuel changes signal pressure on diesel costs for motorists. Policy & Trade Uncertainty: Global trade disruption and tariff uncertainty continue to cloud growth, with geopolitical risks still weighing on investment plans.

Ghana Energy Security: President John Dramani Mahama commissioned a refurbished Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) and ordered a plan to expand capacity to 100,000 bpd, alongside restructuring to permanently eliminate political interference. South Africa Power Sector: Eskom says it has hit its best system performance in nearly a decade—zero diesel use for two straight weeks, 441 days without load shedding, and record availability—while President Ramaphosa moves to allay fears over Eskom’s transmission-asset unbundling and municipal debt risks. South Africa Fuel Prices: South Africa’s fuel price adjustment is due this week, with petrol expected to hold steady (possible small dip for 93-octane) and diesel likely to rise by about R2/litre. Nigeria Gas & Refining: Mahama also reiterated TOR’s revival as part of Ghana’s broader energy push, while Nigeria’s Axxela marked 10 million LTI-free manhours and received credit rating upgrades. Regional Energy Trade: A new report says Africa led Belt and Road Initiative investment in H1 with $33.5bn, driven by manufacturing and energy projects, including Ethiopia’s large-scale green power and green ammonia plans.

Ghana Refining Push: President John Dramani Mahama says the revived Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) is being restructured to permanently cut political interference, while directing a roadmap to lift capacity from 45,000 to 100,000 barrels per day after commissioning refurbished units and receiving Ghana’s first Jubilee crude shipment for local processing. Nigeria Power Leadership: Nigeria’s 12 electricity distribution companies (DisCos) have new leadership line-ups, with a focus on expanding access, improving reliability, cutting losses and strengthening revenue collection as the sector grapples with infrastructure and regulatory pressure. Water Risk on the Rise: New reports warn water stress is climbing on corporate agendas, with drought already hitting food output and supply chains like textiles facing growing exposure to water shortages. Regional Trade Facilitation: Kenya can learn from China’s Xiamen reforms, which cut customs clearance time by 30% to speed cross-border trade—an approach relevant as East African logistics and port upgrades ramp up. Geopolitics and Energy Routes: The Ceuta migrant crisis is framed as part of a wider Western Mediterranean power shift affecting migration, border control and energy shipping routes. Oil Market Disruption Watch: Italy inspected a tanker linked to Russia’s shadow fleet in the central Mediterranean, underscoring tightening enforcement that could ripple through fuel flows.

Middle East Tensions: Trump says the US will hold off on new strikes on Iran if a rapid deal is reached, while the US State Department warns Americans in 10 countries to be “prepared to depart” as Kuwait reports fresh drone attacks and a tanker hit in the region. Mozambique Gas Security: Islamist militants seized Mocimboa da Praia port in Cabo Delgado, threatening LNG-linked infrastructure near Afungi, as attacks killed at least 8 people and displacement tops 700,000. Nigeria Refining Watch: Dangote’s $2.5bn capital raise ahead of an IPO in September adds pressure on Nigeria’s idle refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna amid renewed scepticism over restart plans. Nigeria Clean Cooking: Government flags off a nationwide LPG rollout under the Decade of Gas, targeting 5m households by 2030 and starting with 27,000 cylinders in Bayelsa. Ghana Telecom Rules: Ghana delays its 5G spectrum auction as the NCA tightens ownership and operational rules for operators, reshaping bidding conditions. Trade Snapshot: WTO reports Africa’s merchandise exports rose 14% in Q1 2026, led by precious metals, gold, copper and ores, while fuel and cocoa fell. Zimbabwe Power Milestone: Zimbabwe records nearly two decades of uninterrupted winter power, driven by Hwange and Kariba performance and tariff-backed maintenance.

Clean Cooking Push (Nigeria): Nigeria’s federal government has launched a nationwide rollout of its National Grassroots LPG Penetration Programme under the Decade of Gas initiative, aiming to reach 5 million households by 2030, with 27,000 LPG cylinders planned for Bayelsa in the first phase. Maritime Gas Security (Egypt): The African Union condemned a drone attack on vessels at Egypt’s Damietta port, calling it a violation of sovereignty; the incident damaged a US-owned floating storage and regasification unit and raised fresh concerns for LNG infrastructure near the Suez corridor. Power Sector Reform (Ghana): Ghana says electricity reforms are cutting generation costs and improving sector finances, including lower tariffs for renewables and thermal plants, as it pushes stronger regional power markets and transition planning. Fuel Pricing Pressure (Nigeria): Nigeria’s spot imported petrol landed cost reportedly rose above Dangote’s gantry price, renewing calls from marketers to curb fuel imports and rely more on local refining. Energy Policy & Finance (Cameroon): Cameroon’s ARSEL has shortlisted firms to audit Nachtigal Hydro Power Company’s financial models, focusing on debt, returns and tariff impacts. Regional Development Finance (Tanzania/SADC): Tanzania’s Investment Bank urged SADC development finance institutions to pool capital for industrial projects tied to Vision 2050, stressing the need to link energy and transport with industry and special economic zones. Geopolitics & Energy Risk (US-Iran): Fitch warns emerging-market credit buffers are thinning as the US-Iran conflict disrupts trade chokepoints and raises energy-supply risks.

Energy Security & Shipping: A drone strike damaged two gas tankers in Egypt’s Damietta waters, raising fresh concerns for Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline supply routes as Red Sea and Hormuz tensions keep markets jumpy. Power Market Reform: South Africa’s cabinet approved draft electricity pricing reforms aimed at moving from Eskom’s state-controlled model toward a more competitive market, with major knock-on effects for municipalities and distribution. Gas & Infrastructure (East Africa): EACOP launched a campaign in Uganda to cut gender-based violence and harassment along the pipeline route, pairing GBV/SRHR risk work with community and workplace action. Mining & Value Addition: Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa hailed Chinese-backed lithium sulphate plants as a step toward beneficiation, pushing the country to capture more value from raw minerals. Climate Risk for Energy: UN chief Antonio Guterres warned that a strengthening El Niño could intensify extreme weather, amplifying risks that can disrupt power systems and fuel demand. Regional Policy (West Africa): Nigeria is pushing a regional petroleum pricing framework and an African oil trading hub via NMDPRA to reduce reliance on foreign benchmarks.

Energy Security & Supply: Malaysia says fuel supply at Petronas stations is stable and sufficient until September, with a task force monitoring prices and smuggling while seeking crude from West Africa and the Americas. Market Disruption: Canada’s CIRO halts trading of Reconnaissance Energy Africa pending delisting. Power Transition: South Africa’s President Ramaphosa launches Mpumalanga’s R10bn Ummbila Emoyeni wind farm, backing a renewables-plus-coal approach and targeting 1,000+ jobs. Grid & Investment Finance: Afreximbank closes US$190m for Zimbabwe’s CBZ Bank, including trade finance and a power-stability on-lending line tied to the SADC grid. Climate Risk: UN warns a strengthening El Niño could intensify extreme heat, drought and rainfall into 2027, “adding fuel to a planet already on fire.” Oil & Shipping Shock: Oil prices rise after Iran says it stopped vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting fragile global supply routes. Energy Access Innovation: Islamic Relief SA and partners install solar-powered vertical hydroponics in schools, linking clean energy with food resilience and women’s empowerment. Policy & Business Pressure: Nigeria’s energy-cost burden and structural bottlenecks remain central to growth debates, even as reforms stabilize some indicators.

Electricity Reform: South Africa’s Ramaphosa backs Eskom restructuring Phase I, endorsing plans for an independent Transmission System Operator to support competition, cut costs and improve energy security, while flagging municipal arrears as a key risk. Grid Cash Relief: NTCSA fast-tracks solar IPP curtailment compensation after a surge in curtailment instructions, moving to a two-step provisional payout using SCADA data to clear claims faster. Gas for Industry: Nigeria’s Idris says the country will use its 200+ tcf natural gas reserves via the AKK pipeline to power plants and industries, aiming to lower costs and spur industrial growth. Gas Market Shift: Africa’s LNG producers are increasingly prioritising domestic gas for power and industry alongside export deals, with Mauritania/Senegal highlighted as an export-plus-domestic model. Red Sea Shipping Pressure: Saudi Arabia moves to form a multinational maritime coalition to protect Red Sea routes as Houthi threats and toll talk raise new risks for oil and shipping corridors. Mining Value Push: Zimbabwe accelerates mineral beneficiation and value addition to capture more local value from mining, while Southern Africa is urged to mobilise development financing at scale to close infrastructure and capital gaps. Climate Risk: El Niño forecasts warn South Africa to prepare for drought, heatwaves and severe storms this summer.

Red Sea & Hormuz Risk: A drone strike damaged two US-owned gas tankers at Egypt’s Damietta port, reviving fears for Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline as Red Sea routes compete with Hormuz bottlenecks. Gulf Shipping Reality Check: Hormuz traffic edged up, but Kpler data shows crude export clearance still weak, with war risk insurance and Iranian interdiction the main barriers. Houthi-Iraq-Saudi Escalation: Reuters reports Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities from Iraqi territory with Iran-aligned coordination, prompting US-Saudi strikes on militia sites in eastern Iraq. Ghana Gas Disruption: A WAPCO metering station trip cut gas to major thermal plants, triggering load management and highlighting transmission weaknesses. Nigeria Trade Pressure: US tariffs of 12.5% on Nigerian exports could hit non-oil sectors and forex earnings, SEREC warns. Nigeria Gas Pipeline Push: Niger State declared the AKK Gas Pipeline corridor an Industrial Development Park, pitching gas-to-industry plans. Climate Shock for Food: El Niño intensifies, with drought or flooding risks for southern Africa and potential food inflation pressure globally.