AGP Executive Report

South Africa Power Strain: Transalloys has shut its last manganese smelter in Mpumalanga, blaming crippling electricity prices and slow tariff relief talks—putting about 600 jobs at risk and threatening 7,000 downstream roles. South Africa Policy Uncertainty: A North-West University index shows SA’s policy uncertainty rising to 81.9 in Q2, with Middle East-linked shocks and lingering energy-crisis fallout still weighing on growth and inflation expectations. Nigerian Gas & Power Finance: Shell Nigeria and nine banks launched a $3bn contract finance facility to fund indigenous oil and gas contractors, while Nigeria’s power minister says supply should improve before year-end as 23 solar mini-grids roll out to serve 50,000 people. Nigeria Energy Transition & Renewables: Niger State handed 500 hectares to Abuja Steel Mills for a solar farm and industrial park, and women farmers are shifting from diesel to solar to cut energy costs and reduce food losses. Regional Energy Security: Egypt’s border crackdown on Sudan-linked illegal gold mining highlights how conflict economies are reshaping cross-border networks. Mobility Tech (Energy Angle): Chinese carmaker Changan is betting on hybrids for South Africa’s transition, arguing they can deliver long-term electrified efficiency without external charging.

Oil & Shipping Shock: Oil prices slid for a third straight day as US-Iran talks in Doha eased Hormuz disruption fears, while a separate incident saw an Iranian claim of a ship “running aground” disputed by tracking data. South Africa Power Affordability: Municipal electricity tariffs rose about 9% from 1 July, deepening hardship for households already forced back to candles, firewood and paraffin. Nigeria Upstream Finance: Shell Nigeria launched a $3bn contractor contract-finance facility with nine banks to unlock local project lending in naira and dollars. Integrated Power Strategy: Africa Energy Indaba (Cape Town, March 2027) will focus on integrated power systems combining gas, renewables, hydropower and battery storage for universal access. Renewables Pipeline (Jordan): Jordan plans tenders for pumped hydro, 200MW solar PV, 100MW wind and 100MW BESS, plus an Automated Energy Control Centre. Green Tobacco Push (Zimbabwe): Tobacco growers face forestry and land constraints as the sector urges afforestation and cleaner curing to cut deforestation. Renewables Investment (Inox Clean Energy): Inox Clean Energy secured INR 700 crore from Adar Poonawalla Family Office to expand renewables and acquisitions, including Africa-linked assets.

World Bank Finance: The World Bank approved a $265m loan for Morocco’s Ifahsa pumped hydropower storage project near Chefchaouen, aiming to add 300MW of flexible storage to back renewables and improve grid reliability. Power Market Bottlenecks: A new South Africa analysis warns energy plans are hitting a wall as transmission and municipal-level approvals slow private power deals, even as the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act reshapes trading. Inflation & Rates: South Africa’s SARB has room to move gradually, with two-year inflation expectations closer to target than headline figures, after the energy shock. Execution Gap: KPMG flags an “execution gap” across Southern Africa—project preparation and grid readiness are limiting bankable power pipelines despite investor appetite. Energy Security & Industry: Afreximbank reiterates support for Dangote’s push to cut fuel imports, backing refinery expansion and storage/pipeline plans across Africa. Grid Tech & Storage: VEICHI launched C&I solar plus storage offerings for businesses to manage power fluctuation risks. Regional Disruption Risk: A report links Hormuz-linked shocks to higher inflation pressures for oil-importing African economies, especially via food and transport costs.

Nigeria Upstream Shift: Indigenous operators are set to lead Nigeria’s next upstream growth phase, with Seplat Energy spotlighted after its ExxonMobil subsidiary acquisition and gas expansion plans at African Energy Week (AEW) 2026. AI Push: South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa urged faster AI and cloud adoption to modernise public services and education, framing it as a survival tool for Africa’s competitiveness. Renewables Buildout: Egypt plans to add 2.2GW renewables plus 1.3GWh battery storage to the grid in 2026 as peak demand rises. Grid-Scale Storage for Mining: Alsym Energy and ERITY signed a 9GWh sodium-ion battery partnership aimed at off-grid mining energy needs. Fuel Relief Watch: South Africa announced July fuel price cuts, with analysts warning taxes could claw back some savings. Battery Deal in South Africa: Envision Energy secured a 660MWh BESS supply for the Naos-1 hybrid renewable project. Ethiopia Fuel Retail: Libya’s OLA Energy agreed to buy TotalEnergies’ Ethiopia assets, including 120 stations and a 13,000-cubic-metre storage terminal. Energy Finance: EDB pledged €500m+ to Nigeria across renewables, infrastructure and SMEs, signalling deeper EU-Nigeria investment ties. Policy/Regulation: ATIDI reported a 20% profit rise in 2025 and called for stronger African financial architecture to unlock long-term investment.

South Africa Fuel Relief: South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources and Energy confirmed July 1 fuel price cuts after easing global oil costs linked to a US-Iran ceasefire push—petrol down about R2/litre, diesel over R3, and illuminating paraffin falling by more than R5. South Africa Energy Policy & Markets: The SARB said Middle East conflict hit energy prices and markets but didn’t materially dent South Africa’s real economy in Q1, while the trade balance slipped into a May deficit as the oil import bill rose. Nigeria Oil Security & Prices: Nigeria’s crude output is helping cushion the economy as Brent falls, with pipeline surveillance in the Niger Delta credited for reducing theft and vandalism. Nigeria EU Funding: European financiers launched a fresh €20m Nigeria Country Window, adding support for infrastructure, agriculture, healthcare, renewable energy and SMEs. Gas Flaring Warning: The World Bank reported global gas flaring rose for a third straight year in 2025 to 167bn m³, worth about $54bn—highlighting stalled progress despite available capture tech. Libya-Ethiopia Fuel Distribution: Libya’s OLA Energy agreed to buy TotalEnergies’ Ethiopia assets, including 120 stations and a 13,000m³ storage terminal, boosting Libya’s footprint in African fuel distribution. Eskom Digitalization: Eskom and Huawei opened a modernization centre to train staff and youth in ICT for smart grids, cybersecurity and digital operations. Climate Risk Backdrop: Floods in Ghana and Ivory Coast killed at least 24, underscoring how extreme weather is already disrupting energy and infrastructure.

Renewables & Grid: South Africa’s Impofu Wind Farm cluster (330MW) entered commercial operation, backed by long-term PPAs with Sasol and Air Liquide and a 116km private 132kV line to connect into the Eskom network. Oil & Refining: Ghana’s President Mahama broke ground on Phase 2 of the Sentuo Oil Refinery in Tema, targeting an extra 60,000 bpd and reducing reliance on imported refined products as Jubilee crude starts local processing. Power Infrastructure: Johannesburg secured a R3.8bn concessional loan (with KfW) to help fix City Power amid criticism over low maintenance spending and mounting electricity service concerns. Fuel Prices & Social Impact: Angola saw deadly unrest after diesel prices rose as the IMF-backed subsidy phase-out bites, with protests escalating from transport operators to wider violence. Energy Transition in Fisheries: Tunisia launched a solar-powered electric propulsion pilot for an artisanal fishing boat in Djerba, aiming to cut emissions and offer a cleaner blue-economy model. Energy Markets Watch: Thungela said Middle East conflict-linked volatility is still shaping oil and gas prices, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key risk for energy flows. Investment & Projects: Pulsar Helium signed a binding letter to reserve helium liquefaction capacity for its Topaz development, supporting a new rare gases hub plan. Energy Access Context: A new warning highlights millions still lack reliable electricity across Africa, underscoring the scale of the access challenge.

Libya–Nigeria Oil Link: Nigeria imported about 64,500 bpd of Libyan crude (around 2m barrels in May), the first recorded shipment on record since 2013, underscoring how regional supply disruptions are reshaping refinery feedstock flows. Libya Gas Boost: Eni and Libya’s NOC started up the Sabratha Compression project, adding compression capacity to sustain output from the Bahr Essalam field and support power generation plus exports to Italy via Greenstream. Nigeria Fuel Market Watch: Nigeria’s petroleum minister says deregulation will keep petrol prices market-driven, but warns against profiteering and meter manipulation as regulators push for consumer protection. Power Sector Pressure in South Africa: A new analysis says Eskom’s tariff hikes have climbed fourfold since 2008, raising Eskom’s share of GDP while pushing costs onto industry and households. Corporate Power Leadership: Ikeja Electric named Ogochukwu Onyelucheya acting CEO from 1 July as Folake Soetan moves to broader energy-sector responsibilities. Energy Finance Deal: Pathway Advisors will act as lead issuing house for Pivot Integrated Energy’s N300bn commercial paper programme to fund working capital for downstream growth. Alternative Power Cost Hit: NGX-listed firms spent N400.83bn on alternative energy in Q1 2026, up from Q1 2025, reflecting ongoing reliance on diesel and other self-generation amid unreliable grid power. Middle East Energy Security: A study says 89% of Middle East sovereign investors prioritise energy security, with critical infrastructure also a top focus.

Distributed Renewables Finance: IFC backed CrossBoundary Access with a $10m equity investment to scale mini-grids and battery-as-a-service across Sub-Saharan Africa, joining investors including AfDB and Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund. Kenya Clean Power Push: KenGen lifted its renewable pipeline target to 5,500MW (from 1,500MW) under its G2G 2034 plan, with nuclear, hydro and expanded geothermal development flagged as key drivers. Regional Fuel Logistics: Kenya and Rwanda signed deals to route Rwanda’s bulk refined fuel imports via the Port of Mombasa and Kenya Pipeline Company, aiming to massively expand volumes on the Northern Corridor. Maritime Capacity in Ghana: Ghana’s Transport Minister pledged support for the Regional Maritime University as it graduated 417 professionals, positioning RMU as a globally competitive training hub for the blue economy. Energy Transition & Industry Value: At AFNIS 2026, leaders renewed calls for equitable resource-based industrialisation—moving beyond raw mineral exports toward beneficiation and regional linkages. Oil-Route Shock Watch: Germany announced €250m extra support for regions hit by the prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption, underscoring ongoing energy-security pressures.

Eskom Tariff Pressure: South Africa’s Nersa says Eskom’s negotiated tariff deals still fall short for energy-intensive industry, warning fixed charges and municipal costs are squeezing industrial electricity demand and threatening jobs and output. Strait of Hormuz Risk: Global energy logistics remain jittery as Iran-U.S. tensions flare again, keeping pressure on oil and gas transit through Hormuz despite easing hopes. Africa Power Investment: The IEA projects Africa energy investment at $110bn in 2026, with Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Egypt and Libya taking most of the share, even as upstream spending weakens. Zimbabwe Solar Push: Zimbabwe is moving toward financial close on a $400m, 500MW floating solar project on Lake Kariba to boost grid supply and clean power. ECOWAS Finance for Power: EBID approved $268m for Taraba State covering a solar plant, irrigated rice and an industrial park to drive jobs and electrification. Clean Cooking Gap: WHO warns 560m+ in sub-Saharan Africa lack electricity and 970m still cook with polluting fuels, with progress needing to triple to hit 2030 goals. Dangote Refinery Feedstock: Dangote has reportedly bought its first UAE crude cargoes as it diversifies supply amid Nigeria crude availability and export-terminal constraints. Smartphone Localisation: Nigeria’s NCC urges incentives for smartphone makers to set up local production to cut costs and reduce import dependence.

Power Access Crisis: A new World Bank-backed update says 655 million people still lack electricity, with Sub-Saharan Africa the hardest hit and Uganda urged to make power more affordable, expand rural electrification, and scale clean cooking. Battery Storage Push: Envision Energy signed a 660MWh BESS deal for South Africa’s Naos-1 hybrid project (300MW solar plus storage), aiming to deliver dispatchable renewable power and improve grid stability. Grid & Cost Pressure: South Africa’s inflation expectations survey is set to guide the SARB rate call, with analysts warning oil-price moves could still feed into prices. Clean Cooking Alarm: Another report flags that 1bn Africans risk missing clean cooking access targets by 2027, linking energy poverty to health and livelihoods. Oil & Gas Finance Watch: Iraq is eyeing a $400bn energy fund to finance infrastructure and power projects, while OPEC forecasts rising oil demand despite EV growth. Regional Energy Talent: Ghana’s Regional Maritime University graduated 417 professionals, reinforcing skills for the blue economy and maritime energy supply chains.

Clean Cooking & Health: Siaya County’s high respiratory disease burden is linked to unclean household cooking, with EPRA and CDS Africa running a two-day screening and treatment camp for children under five and other high-risk patients. Electricity Access Finance: Africa’s Mission 300 electrification push has secured about $1.4bn in co-financing since 2024, led by the EIB, AfDB and the Green Climate Fund, as the World Bank and AfDB push faster connections and grid reforms. Rural Power Investment: IFC backed WeLight with a €27m capital raise to expand solar mini-grids into Nigeria and the DRC, targeting nearly 10m people by 2030. Power Sector Leadership: Nigeria’s Ikeja Electric named Ogochukwu Onyelucheya as Acting CEO from July 1, as outgoing CEO Folake Soetan shifts to wider Sahara Group responsibilities. Oil & Gas Project Pipeline: SBM Offshore lined up Asian shipyards for TotalEnergies’ Venus FPSO for Namibia, with July FID eyed and first oil targeted for 2030. Energy Markets & FX: A Nigeria-focused report highlights how dollar access remains a major hurdle for importers amid ongoing FX reforms. Regional Investment Push: Nigeria, the EU and ECOWAS convened a regional investment forum to unlock deals across renewable energy, infrastructure and manufacturing. Nuclear Oversight: Namibia will host CTBTO’s Integrated Field Exercise IFE26 in October 2026 to test nuclear monitoring capabilities.

Power & Tariffs (Ghana): Ghana’s PURC approved electricity and water tariff hikes from July 1, with a 3.49% electricity increase justified by exchange-rate pressure and heavy thermal generation dependence, according to CUTS International’s Appiah Kusi Adomako. Clean Cooking Crisis: The IEA warns nearly 970 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack clean cooking access (2024), with the gap set to widen to over 1 billion by 2027 as population growth outpaces progress. LNG & Gas Infrastructure: Lloyds Energy says it’s evaluating LNG import and regasification opportunities as Africa’s planned terminals remain largely unfinished, citing stalled projects in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire. Nigeria Oil & Prices: Nigerians are again pushing for petrol cuts below N1,000/litre despite crude falling to about $72, pointing to a disconnect between pump prices and crude costs. Renewables Push (Nigeria): MAN urges broader renewable adoption to cut unreliable power and self-generation costs, echoing government claims of major fuel savings from a renewables-heavy power mix. Regional Energy Logistics (Kenya): Kenya Pipeline Company highlights tech-driven efficiency and East Africa connectivity to keep fuel supply moving beyond its borders.

Regional Trade & Energy Volatility: South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa told SACU leaders that no country can prosper alone amid shifting trade patterns and food and energy market volatility, as the bloc pushes a “re-imagined” agenda and reforms under new Executive Secretary Dumsani Masilela. Clean Cooking Push (Nigeria): Nasarawa’s Emir backed deployment of 80 million clean cookstoves, warning against opportunists and linking cleaner cooking to major health gains. Gas & Refining Updates (Ghana/Nigeria): Ghana’s TOR resumed crude processing after a turnaround and says it will receive Ghana’s own crude in July as Phase 2 of Sentuo Oil Refinery moves ahead; Nigeria’s Ogun State signalled revival of the OKLNG project and deeper industrial plans for Ogun Waterside. Oil-Route Risk (Strait of Hormuz): Iran warned ships must get prior approval to transit Hormuz, while US strikes hit Iran-linked targets after attacks on commercial shipping, keeping energy-security concerns front and centre for import-dependent economies. Nuclear for Development (Morocco): Morocco was elected to AFCONE’s nuclear-energy commission, reinforcing the Pelindaba Treaty’s push for peaceful nuclear tech in areas like healthcare and agriculture. Electricity Access Pressure: New reporting highlights how power shortages and underinvestment still undermine key services, with Nigeria’s UCH facing chronic outages and infrastructure decay.

Power & Grid Policy: South Africa’s Nersa published a draft market inquiry on fixed charges and Eskom’s capacity and energy charges, flagging that time-of-use changes are hitting agriculture hardest and calling for better customer-impact assessments and revised tariff design. Hydropower Outlook: The IHA reports Africa added 4.2GW of hydropower in 2025, with major projects like Ethiopia’s GERD and Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere reshaping supply, but notes pumped storage commissioning lagged and transmission bottlenecks still constrain potential. Oil & Refining: Ghana’s President Mahama broke ground for Sentuo Oil Refinery Phase 2, lifting capacity from 40,000 to 100,000 bpd and aiming to strengthen energy security; Nigeria’s fuel subsidy “implementation lag” remains a key theme in analysis. Gas & Mobility: TotalEnergies entered the Bab Gas Cap concession (10% stake) targeting 1.5 bcf/d, while Nigeria’s logistics push highlights CNG adoption and AI freight matching to cut costs. Energy Access & Nuclear: The World Bank’s Mission 300 electrification drive may miss its 300mn target, and more African countries are exploring SMRs as a long-term route to close the power gap. Energy for AI: Telcos are turning to AI for energy management to cut network power use, with MTN citing major savings after deployment.

Grid & power reliability: Outa says it will seek urgent court action to stop Eskom cutting power to Johannesburg over R5.3bn arrears, pushing for ring-fenced payments to protect supply. Renewables & storage: Envision Energy signed a 660MWh BESS deal for South Africa’s Naos-1 hybrid project (300MW solar), aimed at dispatchable wheeling across the grid. Gas & methane policy: Nigeria argues it can turn the EU Methane Regulation into a commercial advantage, pointing to Nigeria LNG’s OGMP 2.0 “Gold Standard” methane performance. Critical minerals & security: A Nigeria-focused piece warns that lithium and other strategic minerals could be linked to local insecurity and calls for a rigorous national inquiry. Energy access pressure: A new global access snapshot reiterates that 655m people still lack electricity, with Sub-Saharan Africa and rural areas falling further behind. Oil market backdrop: China’s state refiners are considering resuming Iranian oil purchases after a US waiver, though financing and logistics uncertainties remain. Climate risk to power: BMI flags El Niño drought as a threat to Nigeria’s hydropower-dependent electricity supply.

Court Ruling on Oil & Gas Accountability: A Paris court ordered TotalEnergies to report the environmental impact of emissions from its oil and gas products and explain how it will align with the Paris Agreement, as critics warn projects like Uganda’s Tilenga and the heated EACOP pipeline could drive major pollution. Mining Policy vs Delivery: PwC says South Africa’s critical-minerals plans are “well-meaning” but suffer execution lag and investment gaps, while S&P cut the country’s growth outlook on inflation, energy costs and rate pressures. Power & Grid Build-Out: South Africa’s grid constraints are getting practical fixes, from locally built smart energy management hardware to Kulani Energy’s acquisition of Optipower assets to expand transmission, substations and renewable EPC capacity. New Mineral Push: Nigeria announced a “world-class” polymetallic province in Kaduna with platinum group metals, gold, nickel, copper, lithium and rare earths, adding to the race to supply energy-transition inputs. Energy Access Pressure: A new SDG 7 update warns electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa must triple to reach universal access by 2030, with 655m still without power and 970m lacking clean cooking. Regional Trade Momentum: Afreximbank reported intra-African trade rose 5.47% to $213.8bn in 2025, supporting the case for more value addition and energy-linked industrialisation.