AGP Executive Report

East Africa Refining Push: Aliko Dangote’s $16bn, 700,000 bpd Lamu refinery broke ground in Kenya, with President William Ruto saying Lamu beat Tanga after technical studies on water and harbour depth; Afreximbank called it a major step for energy security and cutting imported refined fuel. Regional Fuel Security: Tanzania and Uganda advanced a refined-products infrastructure project at Chongoleani, Tanga, handing the site to Worley for feasibility work to support EACOP-linked crude and reduce import dependence. Nigeria Oil & Investment Signals: Chevron reaffirmed long-term commitment to Nigeria on its 66th Independence Day, citing exploration, infill drilling and production upgrades. Green Finance Gap: Nigeria’s Vice-President Kashim Shettima said the country needs about $410bn extra investment by 2060 to hit its net-zero pathway, urging private capital and risk-sharing. Solar Dealmaking: KawiSafi Ventures invested $2m in Orb Energy to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa. Policy Scrutiny: The EU parliament urged tighter scrutiny of aid programmes in Africa to ensure measurable, sustainable benefits.

East Africa Refining Push: Kenya has officially started construction of Dangote’s US$16bn Lamu refinery and petrochemicals complex, targeting up to 700,000 bpd and up to 1,000MW of power for regional energy needs, with President William Ruto leading the groundbreaking. Court Challenge: The project’s rollout faces legal headwinds after residents petitioned over land rights, with an interim order halting related activities until a hearing on Oct 14. Regional Fuel Logistics: Kenya also activated a transit route for Rwanda’s refined fuel imports via Mombasa, receiving a first 40,000-tonne diesel and petrol consignment under an EAC energy cooperation framework. Power Reliability in South Africa: Tshwane said it aims to restore electricity to all customers affected by a Watloo substation explosion by Thursday evening, after rain hampered repairs. Fuel Price Pressure: Zambia’s pump prices jumped after tax relief ended, with petrol at K31.46 and diesel at K33.27. Governance & Energy Transition: South Africa’s electricity minister said load reduction is on track to end by March 2027, while Tanzania advanced nuclear plans with renewed focus on uranium development.

Dangote Refinery Push (Kenya): Kenya and Aliko Dangote moved ahead with the $16bn Lamu refinery plan, with security tightened at the groundbreaking venue and officials framing it as a regional energy-security and industrialisation leap; Grid Reliability (Nigeria): Nigeria began building a new ultra-modern National Control Centre for the Independent System Operator in Osogbo to replace a 64-year-old facility and improve real-time grid monitoring; Renewables for Resilience (South Africa): Riversdale in the Western Cape inaugurated a solar-plus-battery project aimed at cutting Eskom reliance and moving toward “energy-independent” operations; Power for Industry (Tanzania): Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project is credited with boosting generation capacity and supporting industrial demand, especially for mining and refining; Energy Finance & Industry (Afreximbank): Afreximbank approved a €40m revolving working-capital facility for Prometal SA to secure steel raw materials amid scrap shortages; Energy Policy & Transition (Egypt/Nile): Egypt called for Nile Basin cooperation grounded in international law, data sharing and prior notification, linking water security to energy and food planning.

East Africa Refining Push: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s William Ruto will break ground on Wednesday for a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery at Lamu, with a 1,000MW power plant feeding the Kenyan grid; the project faces a land-rights lawsuit but construction is set to proceed as court allows it while the case continues, and at least six heads of state are expected to attend. Regional Energy Security: Dangote framed the Lamu refinery as a route to cut Africa’s fuel import dependence by 2030, as East Africa grapples with price shocks and protests tied to higher petroleum costs. Mozambique LNG Supply Chain: SLB OneSubsea won a contract to deliver subsea production systems for ExxonMobil’s Rovuma LNG project phase one, including subsea trees, manifolds and control systems, plus a Mozambique services base. US–South Africa Friction: US Ambassador Leo Bozell defended new visa restrictions, citing Pretoria’s lack of engagement on rural crime, land issues and investment concerns. Red Sea Disruption: The EU signals it may seek observer status in a Saudi-led coalition as Houthi attacks keep the Bab el-Mandeb corridor under pressure, threatening shipping and energy routes.

Dangote Refinery Push: Aliko Dangote says Africa can be largely fuel self-sufficient by 2030 as his $16bn, 700,000-bpd Lamu refinery prepares to break ground, while President William Ruto insists the project will proceed despite a Kenyan court order tied to land-rights claims. Court Challenge & Local Tensions: The Malindi Environment and Land Court ordered parties to maintain the status quo on disputed land until Oct 14, potentially affecting site activities, as residents seek consultation and compensation. Equity Access for East Africans: Kenya’s government says it can raise its stake beyond 10% if neighbours opt out, and a new vehicle aims to let Kenyan investors buy Dangote shares via the NSE from as low as Sh49 through GDRs. Capital Markets Watch: Nigeria’s NGX market cap fell by N468.6bn on Sept 29 as banking stocks dragged sentiment. Energy Policy in Focus: ECOWAS Parliament adopted its 2027 work plan and budget, flagging energy and connectivity among key priorities. Security & Illicit Mining: South Africa’s Operation Prosper arrested 121 suspected illegal miners in Gauteng and recovered firearms and mining equipment.

Grid & fuel cost control: Eskom says it cut diesel spending by nearly 81% since April 2026, using less open-cycle gas turbine fuel as coal availability improved, while higher global oil prices still loom over costs. Oil price pressure: Global crude rose for a second straight session on Middle East supply fears, keeping pressure on African fuel bills and inflation risk. Dangote refinery legal headwinds: Kenya’s court ordered a pause on construction of Dangote’s $16bn Lamu refinery after residents challenged land and environmental compliance; the case is set for Oct 14. Dangote IPO momentum: Investor confidence is rising as Dangote Group targets about $36bn revenue in 2026, boosting interest in the refinery IPO. Regional energy logistics: The Red Sea crisis is rerouting 70–80% of regional cargo, driving higher risk premiums and new security pacts for oil shipments. Energy security via imports: Rwanda received its first government-backed refined fuel cargo via Kenya’s Northern Corridor, reducing dependence on a single supply route. Procurement focus: A policy push argues procurement is Africa’s missing development lever, meant to make spending drive local jobs and industrial growth. Clean cooking push: UN and AfDB-linked messaging continues to stress clean cooking as a priority for Africa’s energy transition.

Red Sea Security: Egypt urged freedom of navigation around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb as Yemen fighting intensifies, warning the strait’s instability directly hits Africa’s food and energy supply chains. Regional Risk Mapping: A security assessment says Bab el-Mandeb risk is “high” and could turn “critical” if Houthis shift from disruption to wider attacks, with Djibouti and Egypt most exposed and Ethiopia vulnerable via the Djibouti corridor. Nigeria Refining Policy: Nigeria’s refinery owners and the government called for a more reliable, transparent, bankable crude supply framework, pushing DCSO to evolve beyond administrative allocations and improve FX predictability. South Africa Power Market: Business Leadership SA warned delays in launching South Africa’s wholesale electricity market, seeking clear timelines to drive competition and pressure prices. Kenya Oil Logistics: Kenya received major onshore drilling equipment for the Lokichar oil project via Mombasa, targeting first oil by December 2026. Ethiopia-Djibouti Fuel Link: Dangote-backed plans for a $660m Ethiopia-Djibouti fuel pipeline gained renewed attention as a regional trade and energy corridor boost. Clean Cooking Finance: New analysis says climate aid is leaving poorest countries short, with about half of climate-related finance delivered as debt.

East Africa Refining Push: Kenya’s Port of Lamu received the MV Da Yang with 2,930 tonnes of machinery for Dangote’s planned Ksh 2 trillion East Africa refinery, ahead of a next-week ground-breaking; the project targets crude from Lokichar (Turkana) and other regional sources to cut import dependence and position Kenya as a fuel-processing hub. Nigeria Refining Momentum: Dangote Group says it is targeting $36bn revenue in 2026 after $17bn in H1, as President William Ruto tours the Lagos refinery and backs the Lamu expansion. Gas-to-CNG Deal: Ardova-led consortium agreed to buy 100% of Powergas, one of Africa’s biggest CNG producers, aiming to roll out CNG refuelling sites across Nigeria within 24 months. South Africa Energy Policy: Eskom’s “Eskom 2.0” plan rules out further bailouts and sustained double-digit tariff hikes, with a push to cut losses and inefficiencies. Clean Cooking Drive: Kenya and Norway convened the UN’s first high-level clean-cooking event ahead of the Nairobi Summit, with Ruto and global partners calling for universal access. Helium & Methane Exploration: ASX-listed D3 Energy won five new Technical Cooperation Permits in South Africa’s Free State, adding ~47,000 acres for helium and methane prospects. Gold Slides on Middle East Risk: Gold fell below $4,165/oz as Strait of Hormuz tensions kept oil firm and Treasury yields pressured bullion.

East Africa Refining Push: Kenya’s Port of Lamu received 2,930 tonnes of heavy machinery for Dangote’s planned $17bn East Africa refinery in Lamu, with a Sept. 30 groundbreaking expected to make it a regional fuel and jobs engine. Regional Energy Security: Djibouti broke ground on a Damerjog petroleum terminal (375,000 m³ storage; ~5m tonnes/year) to feed Ethiopia via integrated port-rail-storage-pipeline logistics. Power Demand Signals: Kenya Power reported a Sh1.07bn drop in electricity sales to new customers in the year to June, despite more connections, with insiders pointing to slower business growth and more off-grid solar switching. Tunisia Transition Pressure: Tunisia’s hydrocarbon output fell 8.2%, pushing plans for renewables and grid upgrades, including $430m for electrical infrastructure and targets of 35% renewables by 2030. Nigeria Cost-of-Living Fuel Fight: Atiku Abubakar renewed pressure on Nigeria’s N70,000 minimum wage, arguing it buys only 50 litres of petrol at current prices and demanding wage hikes tied to real costs. UNGA Energy Diplomacy: UAE officials used UNGA meetings to deepen energy and renewables cooperation, while broader UN debates kept energy security and infrastructure financing in focus.

Clean Cooking Push: The African Development Bank urged clean cooking to move to the centre of Africa’s energy transition, citing nearly 1bn people still using wood/charcoal and the health and economic toll on women and children. UNGA Energy & Security Diplomacy: India’s UNGA push linked peace to fair access to food and energy, while Jaishankar reiterated India will defend itself against terrorism and warned against “normalising” it. Ghana Investment Call: Sunon Asogli’s chairman urged Chinese firms in Ghana to shift from showcasing deals to executing projects in the Volta Region, aiming for jobs and local capacity. Nigeria Fuel Subsidy Debate: Nasarawa Governor Abdullahi Sule said reintroducing petrol subsidy in 2027 is not practicable, pointing to import/logistics delays and corruption risks. Gas Market Watch: Natural gas prices stayed steadier than oil in 2026, with US supply fundamentals limiting geopolitical spillover.

Dangote Refinery Logistics: Kenya’s Port of Lamu received the first major heavy-machinery shipment for the $17bn (KSh2.2tn) Dangote East Africa Refinery, with MV Da Yang delivering 2,930 tonnes ahead of next week’s groundbreaking. Renewables for Industry: IFC and LMI Holdings expanded Ghana’s Solar for Industries push, adding a second tranche to complete a 200MW solar PV project (100MW phase) for Tema and Dawa industrial zones, targeting 100+ firms and hundreds of jobs. Energy Finance Push: African Energy Week 2026 in Cape Town spotlights the continent’s $31bn–$50bn energy finance gap, with African institutions like Afreximbank/Africa Energy Bank and the Africa Finance Corporation bringing more capital into bankable power, refining and transport deals. Critical Minerals Capital: Nigeria’s critical minerals debate heats up as World Energy Council Nigeria CEO Bala Wunti argues a US-style $110/kg price floor could unlock private investment by creating market certainty. Nile Water Security: Egypt reiterated it will defend Nile water rights under international law amid the Ethiopia dispute, warning development must not harm others.

Kenya Oil Push: A Gulf Energy rig has arrived at Mombasa for the South Lokichar project, aiming for first commercial oil in Dec 2026 and ramping from 20,000 bpd to 50,000 bpd. East Africa Refining Power Link: Aliko Dangote says the Lamu refinery will include a 1,000MW power plant, with 500MW potentially sold to Kenya—turning refining into a regional electricity catalyst. South Africa Power Reform: Eskom’s board is told to cut system losses and revenue leakage and build a 3-, 5- and 10-year roadmap; Ramokgopa ruled out bailouts and sustained double-digit tariff hikes under “Eskom 2.0.” Eskom Leadership: Chair Mteto Nyati wins another three-year term as unbundling and transmission control changes loom. Oil Market Pressure: Rising tanker freight rates are adding to South Africa’s fuel import bill as Middle East shipping disruptions push delivery costs higher. Nigeria Oil Discipline Debate: A commentary warns Nigeria risks repeating boom-bust cycles unless it tackles theft, pipeline vandalism and underproduction with transparent metering and consequences. Africa Energy Finance at UNGA: Ethiopia’s BRICS membership is framed as a route to more infrastructure and sustainable development funding via the New Development Bank.

UN Energy Diplomacy: UAE officials used UNGA 81 to push education financing and, crucially, to review UAE–US energy ties with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, signaling continued focus on cross-border energy cooperation. Power & Industry: Zimbabwe reports sustained electricity stability (over 200 days without load shedding), boosting plant efficiency and cutting fuel and downtime costs—an industrialisation win that also highlights how drought and ageing infrastructure previously squeezed supply. Digital Inclusion: GSMA and PDAA say Africa’s digital ID and public services still miss hundreds of millions who live in mobile broadband coverage but don’t use mobile internet, urging policy fixes beyond network build-out. Energy Security & Trade: Egypt is seeking funding for 36 southern Nile Basin projects spanning hydropower, power links and water schemes to deepen regional integration. Oil & Shipping Risk: Somalia’s Puntland says it freed a product tanker seized by pirates, underscoring ongoing maritime security risks for oil product flows. Climate Shock: A “super El Niño” could drive extreme heat and other hazards, with projections of hundreds of thousands of excess deaths by February, raising pressure for heat preparedness across Africa.

Gas & LNG Investment: Nigeria’s President Tinubu welcomed the $800m Ima Gas Project’s Final Investment Decision, unlocking a 50-year-old offshore resource for AMNI International and TotalEnergies, aimed at ~300 mmscfd peak and feeding Nigeria LNG growth. Regional Fuel Infrastructure: Ethiopia, Djibouti and Dangote-backed partners broke ground on a $660m Damerjog–Dewele multiproduct pipeline and storage build, targeting cheaper, safer refined product flows and stronger energy security along the Horn corridor. Ports & Trade: Tinubu also backed a $7bn+ Ogun State Blue Marine SEZ and Gateway Deep Seaport deal with DP World, promising regulatory clarity and policy stability to move projects from MoUs to delivery. Power & Renewables Access: Nigeria launched a $300m distributed renewable energy fund to expand electricity access, with NSIA and partners backing the rollout. Energy Markets & Business: S&P Global Energy opened a new Abuja office to deepen engagement with Nigeria’s oil and gas regulators and industry. Safety & Accountability: A gas explosion victim in Rivers’ Bille died after alleged gaps in medical care, renewing scrutiny of environmental hazards. Climate & Risk: UN-backed reporting highlights a tropical forest firefighting funding gap that leaves Africa exposed as wildfires worsen.

Oil & Gas Projects: SLB won a major EPC contract for OQEP’s Bisat-B expansion in Oman, adding 19 months to completion and boosting gross fluids handling to 548,000 bpd, with four years of operations and maintenance. Energy Infrastructure: Djibouti and Ethiopia will break ground on Dangote-led Damerjog Petroleum Terminal, a $160m, 375,000 m³ storage hub with up to 5m tons/year transit capacity, linking rail and the Damerjog liquid bulk port. Refining Push: Kenya’s Ruto says Lamu’s Sh2.07trn refinery will break ground within a week, targeting 700,000 bpd. Power Sector Finance: AFC is co-financial adviser on Nigeria’s ₦728.9bn ($550m) NBET Series 2 power bond to settle verified GenCo receivables and ease liquidity. Offshore Exploration: Navitas takes operatorship of South Africa’s Block 1 CBK after regulatory approval and a farm-down. Electricity Affordability: South Africa’s electricity pricing policy draft faces scrutiny over bill structure and unaffordability for households. Shipping Decarbonisation: Liberia urges IMO net-zero shipping rules to be pragmatic and affordable for developing states.

Ghana–China Partnership: Ghana and China reaffirmed plans to deepen trade, investment and industrial cooperation during events marking China’s 77th anniversary in Accra. Energy Transition in North Africa: Tunisia urged faster energy transition and more renewables to strengthen energy security and competitiveness at the Africa Energy Forum in Tunis. Clean Cooking Push: Kenya’s President William Ruto says Nairobi will host the Africa Clean Cooking Summit in January 2027, with a focus on turning commitments into financing and projects for schools and health facilities. Electricity Access Reality Check: Afrobarometer data shows fewer than half of Africans get reliable grid power, with rural and poor households worst served and many turning to solar. Oil & Gas Cooperation: Petrobras signed a Mozambique oil-and-gas cooperation MoU with ENH to support studies, development and knowledge exchange. Red Sea Energy Risk: Britain said it is backing Saudi Arabia against Yemen’s Houthis to reduce escalation risks that could hit global fuel supply. Strait of Hormuz Pressure: Germany urged Iran to end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, warning Africa and Asia are suffering from disrupted oil, gas and fertilizer flows. Ukraine–Russia Ceasefire Talk: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said both sides show interest in a limited ceasefire covering grain and energy-related targets. Africa Energy Events: Namibia’s 5th International African Energy, Oil & Gas Summit (Windhoek, Nov 3–4) opened its call for abstracts.