AGP Executive Report

Fuel-price shock turns deadly in Kenya: Four people were killed as protests and a transport strike paralysed Nairobi and spread to other towns after diesel hikes tied to Middle East-driven oil pressure. Police cleared roads after arrests, but schools shut and commuters were stranded—another reminder that when fuel moves, economies and politics move with it. Energy security meets geopolitics: Iran’s pressure on global shipping and even subsea internet cables keeps widening the risk map for Africa’s fuel and digital infrastructure. Dealmaking for minerals and power: The U.S. and South Africa held high-level talks in Johannesburg on critical minerals, while Zambia’s uranium explorer expanded its footprint with an option on the Sitwe project. Policy and planning push: Rwanda opened the NAP Expo in Kigali, urging countries to shift from climate plans to financed adaptation delivery. Market backdrop: Oil-linked stocks lifted London trading as hopes of U.S.-Iran talks eased crude fears.

Eskom Accountability: Eskom says an interim forensic report found noncompliance in diesel procurement for its open-cycle gas turbine stations, triggering disciplinary proceedings and possible supplier action, with a final report due mid-June. Power Milestone: The utility also marked 365 straight days without load shedding—saving R26.9bn in diesel costs—while South Africans warn the next crisis is electricity prices. Gas Policy Pressure: Industrial gas users in Southern Africa are pushing ten policy moves to avert a “gas cliff” from 2028 as Mozambique supply fades and Sasol’s temporary methane supply ends. Refining & Trade Fight: Nigeria’s fuel market battle escalated as Dangote sued to stop petrol imports, while marketers argue licences are essential for supply security. Regional Oil Push: Uganda backed a proposed $17bn East African refinery with 650,000 bpd capacity, aimed at regional integration and value addition. Health Sovereignty: A new Ebola outbreak in DRC and a case in Uganda are reigniting calls for Africa to fund responses as donor support shrinks. Finance for Industry: AfDB approved a $200m facility for Nigeria’s Bank of Industry to expand SME and climate-resilient industrial financing.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. and South Africa held their highest-level 2026 talks in Johannesburg on potential critical-minerals agreements, with discussions described as “very early stage” but aimed at diversifying supply away from China’s grip on rare earths and other inputs. Downstream Fuel Tensions: In Nigeria, depot owners and marketers are pushing back against Dangote’s latest court push tied to petrol import licences, reopening the fight over whether Nigeria should keep importing fuel as local refining ramps up. East Africa Refining Push: Uganda’s Museveni confirmed talks with Dangote on a regional mega-refinery, arguing for value addition and regional integration rather than exporting crude. Trade & Cost Pressure: South Africa’s Transnet lifted its diesel-linked container surcharge to R78 from R52, while China’s expanded zero-tariff access for African exports is being hailed as a longer-term industrialisation play. Energy Security Shock: Iran’s cable-fee demands on tech firms and renewed war signals keep Strait of Hormuz risk front and centre for fuel markets. SME Financing: AfDB backed a $200m facility for Nigeria’s Bank of Industry to expand long-term funding for infrastructure, agro-processing, health and green industrialisation.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. and South Africa held top-level talks in Johannesburg on critical minerals deals, with discussions described as “very early stage” but aimed at easing Western dependence as China’s rare-earth restrictions bite. Maritime Security: The U.S. Navy tested unmanned surface vessels in Cameroon as part of Exercise Obangame Express, pushing faster coastal threat detection and interception with African partners. Fuel Shock & Inflation Watch: South Africa’s April inflation print is expected to jump as Middle East-linked fuel costs feed through, while the Strait of Hormuz risk keeps global oil buffers shrinking. Pipeline Progress: Tanzania–Uganda’s EACOP cleared another regulatory milestone, with the project reported at over 70% completion and moving toward operational licensing. Kenya–Azerbaijan Energy Pivot: Ruto met Azerbaijan’s Aliyev in Baku to explore oil, gas and refinery cooperation alongside Kenya’s push toward 10,000MW renewables. Power Reliability: Eskom marked a full year without load-shedding for the first time since 2018, though load reduction still lingers.

AI Power Crunch: Kenya’s grid can’t sustain Microsoft’s proposed 1-gigawatt data centre in Olkaria—President Ruto says it would mean “switch off half the country,” with even the first 100MW phase already straining geothermal output. Oil Market Tightening: OPEC kept its 2026 demand growth forecast unchanged while warning Middle East disruptions are tightening physical crude markets and keeping volatility elevated. Energy Cost Shock: South Africa’s metro electricity tariff hikes (6.6%–10.5%) are set to hit households hard, with “rebellion” fears as bills rise faster than inflation. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The US and South Africa held high-level talks in Johannesburg on critical minerals deals, signaling a push to diversify supply chains amid geopolitical pressure. Clean Cooking Push: Kenya’s lawmakers heard that household air pollution kills about 27,000 people a year, as regional efforts target methane and cleaner cooking. Africa-Forward Reset: France and Kenya’s Nairobi summit wrapped with a declaration focused on digital, green industrialisation and financial reforms—while the broader Africa-France relationship remains under scrutiny.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. and South Africa held top-level talks in Johannesburg on critical minerals deals, signaling early-stage interest in diversifying supply chains beyond China. Resource Sovereignty Push: Rwanda’s Paul Kagame used the Africa CEO Forum to warn against “being ripped off,” urging Africa to process more at home and stop selling raw value cheaply. AI Scaling Pressure: PwC says 82% of African firms are running AI pilots, but most are stuck in “pilot mode,” with ROI and enterprise rollout lagging global rivals. Fuel Price Rage: Protests flared over soaring fuel costs in Kenya after major diesel and petrol price hikes, with reports of hoarding and dry pumps. East Africa Energy Competition: Tanzania’s Samia Suluhu met Aliko Dangote after reports of refinery plans shifting toward Kenya, while ATCL is set to launch direct Tanzania–Russia flights via Moscow. Jobs and Skills Scrutiny (South Africa): Unemployment hit 32.7%, reigniting debate over whether training systems are aligned to real hiring needs. Gas-to-Power Reform Call (Nigeria): PUTTRU urged a commercially managed gas settlement model to stop delayed payments from pushing gas away from power plants.

WAAS 2026 Watch: Nigeria and West Africa’s push for cleaner mobility is colliding with reality—stakeholders at the West Africa Automotive Show flagged weak financing, policy inconsistency, skills gaps, poor infrastructure and affordability as the main brakes on CNG and EV adoption. Energy Security & Prices: The Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz squeeze is still reshaping African fuel and fertilizer costs, while oil prices edge up on renewed shipping-risk chatter. Grid Storage Momentum: Battery storage is accelerating globally, and the sub-Saharan region is starting to scale—an important signal for power reliability as renewables grow. South Africa Power Moves: Eskom and Energy Vault signed on for grid-scale gravity storage, adding to the country’s push to firm supply. Downstream Tension: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is back in the spotlight as it challenges ongoing petrol import licence issuance—another test of “energy independence” in practice. Digital Inclusion: Africa’s internet access remains constrained by cost and skills, even as connectivity expands—digital inclusion is still the make-or-break theme. Governance & Sovereignty: Kenya’s France defence pact, granting foreign troops legal immunity, is reigniting debate over sovereignty and accountability.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The US and South Africa held their highest-level 2026 talks in Johannesburg on potential critical-minerals agreements, with discussions described as “very early stage” but aimed at reducing reliance on China for minerals tied to defense, electronics and energy tech. Energy Prices Pressure: Kenya raised retail fuel prices again (May 15–June 14), with diesel jumping hardest as Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep crude costs elevated. Nigeria Refining Fight: Dangote Petroleum Refinery filed a fresh lawsuit to overturn Nigeria’s fuel import licences, reigniting a battle over who controls supply in Africa’s biggest downstream market. South Africa Power Trade: South Africa’s electricity exports to eight neighbours are forecast to bring in about R18.8bn for the year to March 31, 2026. Namibia Upstream Update: ReconAfrica says Kavango West 1X production testing is getting closer, with testing expected before end-May and results due mid-to-late July. Regional Climate Politics: Kenya’s methane debate heats up as a lawmaker warns livestock-focused cuts could hit pastoralists’ livelihoods.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. and South Africa held top-level talks in Johannesburg on critical mineral deals, with attendees calling it “very early stage” but pointing to a push to diversify supply chains away from China. France–Africa Pivot: Nairobi hosts the France–Africa Summit (May 11–12) with Macron and 30+ African leaders, framed around innovation and growth, while critics question why France is leaning into Anglophone East Africa. Trade Boost: China expanded zero-tariff access for all African partners, aiming to lift export competitiveness and value-chain upgrading. Hormuz Shockwatch: Oil rose as ship seizures and attacks persisted around the Strait of Hormuz; Trump and Xi agreed the lane must stay open, but risks remain. South Africa Jobs Pressure: COSATU demanded “urgent and decisive action” after unemployment hit 43.7% under an expanded definition. Oman Power Pipeline: Nama PWP outlined 2026 procurement for wind/solar and desalination, plus consultancy work for up to 2.8GW gas-fired IPPs.

Dangote IPO Push: Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is lining up what could be Africa’s biggest retail listing, with plans to let Nigerians buy shares via POS terminals and fintech rails like OPay and Moniepoint ahead of a target ~$50bn valuation. South Africa Power Regulation: Nersa is heading back to court to extend deadlines for 14 outstanding electricity tariff approvals, warning of regulatory disruption if approvals slip. Grid-Scale Storage Deal: Eskom and Energy Vault signed a development agreement for gravity-based energy storage at Hendrina, starting with 25MW/100MWh and scaling across SADC. Geopolitics & Oil Shock: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi are meeting under pressure from the Iran war, with maritime safety through the Strait of Hormuz and energy-price volatility dominating talks. Climate Finance Spotlight: Ethiopia’s COP32 hosting is framed as a chance to amplify Africa’s climate voice and mobilize long-term capital via its newly operational securities exchange. Mining & Communities: South Africa’s KZN coastal groups are challenging SA Lithium’s Highbury Mine expansion over legal and environmental risks. Infrastructure Capital: BlackRock’s GIP is teaming with Temasek and Abu Dhabi’s L’IMAD (plus ADNOC) to target ~$30bn in infrastructure investments across energy and logistics.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The US and South Africa held high-level talks in Johannesburg on critical minerals deals, with discussions described as “very early stage” but aimed at reducing China’s grip on the supply chain. BRICS Energy Pressure: BRICS foreign ministers meet in India with Iran and the fuel shock from Hormuz disruptions set to dominate energy and connectivity talks. UN Global South Push: The UN has started a $340m Nairobi conference complex to expand capacity and deepen Africa’s role in global decision-making. Atlantic Gas Pipeline: Nigeria and Morocco are set to sign a definitive agreement in Q4 2026 for a $25bn Atlantic coast gas pipeline. South Africa Infrastructure Finance: South Africa secured a $150m OPEC Fund policy loan to unblock energy and freight bottlenecks. France-Africa Dealmaking: Macron’s Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi closed with a €23bn investment package and a push to bring Africa’s borrowing costs and credit reform onto the G7 agenda. Maritime Risk: Somali pirates are demanding a $10m ransom for an Emirati-linked oil tanker hijacked near Yemen.

Africa-France Summit Momentum: Nairobi’s Africa Forward Summit is now translating into deal flow, with France and partners announcing a €23bn/US$27bn investment push framed as “sovereign equality,” including energy transition, AI, agriculture and maritime projects—while civil society groups warn the real test is community-centred delivery, not declarations. Clean Fuels & Aviation: Kenya Airways and Rubis Energy backed what they call Africa’s first sustainable aviation fuel facility in Kenya, and Honeywell tech is lined up for Phelan eFuels’ Saldanha Bay eSAF plant. Power Sector Pressure: South Africa’s electricity pricing debate is getting louder after the minister cited a 987% rise (2007–2023), while Nersa registered 112 generation facilities in Q4 2025/26, mostly solar. Oil & Gas Updates: Nigeria’s crude output hit 1.48m bpd in April but still missed its OPEC quota; Angola extended TotalEnergies’ Block 32 licence to 2043. Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The US and South Africa held early-stage talks in Johannesburg on critical minerals to diversify supply chains away from China. Industrial Execution: Babcock completed a complex low-NOx brownfield retrofit at a major South African petrochemical site.

Critical Minerals Diplomacy: The U.S. and South Africa held their highest-level 2026 talks in Johannesburg on potential critical-mineral agreements, with discussions described as “very early stage” but aimed at securing supplies for defense, electronics and energy tech as China’s rare-earth restrictions keep pressure on Western buyers. Africa–France Deal Push: At the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi, France’s Macron backed a €23bn investment package across energy, AI and agriculture, while Ruto repeated the demand for “sovereign equality” over aid. East Africa Refining Race: Aliko Dangote says he’s leaning toward Kenya’s Mombasa for a 650,000-bpd refinery, citing port depth and demand—adding fresh momentum to East Africa’s downstream build-out. Food & Livestock Shock: South Africa’s FMD vaccination drive is being blamed for reinfections, with farmers pointing to slow rollout and gaps in coverage. Agri Finance: Proparco and Ecobank expanded a partnership to mobilise up to €300m for African agriculture, with a focus on agri-SMEs and women-led businesses. Energy Geopolitics: The Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz disruption continues to reprice global refined products, with analysts warning demand may have to do the balancing as supply recovery lags.

Strait of Hormuz shock hits food first: FAO warns the corridor’s closure is tightening fertilizer supplies and will likely cut yields in late 2026 into 2027, pushing up food prices. France–Africa reset under pressure: At Nairobi’s Africa Forward Summit, Macron pledged €23bn for co-investment in energy transition, digital and agriculture, but a viral scolding of a youth forum audience added friction to the “new partnership” message. Uganda’s oil succession drama: President Museveni was sworn in for a seventh term as TotalEnergies and CNOOC eye crude production from October, while succession questions keep simmering. Energy projects move on: Turkey began commercial operations at ENKA/GE Vernova’s 852MW Kırklareli HA plant; Zambia’s Itimpi Phase II (136MW) went online; and Kenya Airways signed an MoU for Africa’s first dedicated SAF refinery. South Africa policy flashpoint: Eskom’s nuclear site public comment period was extended by three weeks to 25 May, but critics say it’s still too short. Fuel pain spreads: Diesel inched down slightly, yet South Africa’s latest fuel-price surge is expected to hit lower-income households hardest via logistics and food inflation.

France–Africa Summit in Nairobi: Emmanuel Macron is in Kenya for the two-day Africa Forward Summit with Ruto and 30+ African leaders, pitching a “partnership of equals” on innovation, growth, energy transition, peace and security—while critics say France is trying to rebuild influence after setbacks and a shift toward anglophone East Africa. Maritime security—Somalia: Egypt says it’s monitoring the hijacking of the oil tanker M/T Eureka carrying eight Egyptian sailors, with coordination underway with Somali authorities for their release. Hormuz pressure—food risk: A UN task force warns that if fertiliser shipments don’t move through the Strait of Hormuz soon, tens of millions could face hunger, with 45 million more at risk. Oil & jet fuel ripple: Iran-war disruptions are tightening jet fuel supply and driving airlines to cut flights or raise fares; Swiss says it has ~six weeks of fuel but is preparing contingencies. Nigeria gas bottleneck: Work on the Sagamu–Ibadan 80km gas pipeline is stalled, threatening gas supply to southwest businesses and prompting calls for urgent intervention. Energy tech push: InterContinental Energy unveiled its P2(H2)Node™ concept to link green hydrogen power with AI data centres in Asia.

Africa–France Summit in Nairobi (11–12 May): French President Emmanuel Macron is set to arrive with ~30 African leaders for “Africa Forward,” co-hosted by Kenya’s William Ruto, with a heavy push on innovation, growth, business deals and security. Deal flow: Macron says France has already lined up more than €1bn in Kenya commitments, including €700m for Mombasa port terminal upgrades and $225m for a wind farm expansion, plus 11 signed agreements overall. Political pushback: Kenya’s progressive groups are organizing a Pan-Africanism Summit Against Imperialism (PASAI), questioning the choice of Anglophone East Africa and France’s recalibration after setbacks in the Sahel. Energy pressure points: South Africa faces a diesel-driven food inflation risk as truckers warn of closures, while Nigeria’s NNPCL is being told to stop pouring state money into refinery rehabilitation. Markets & policy: SARB appoints Konstantin Makrelov as chief economist/MPC member; Nigeria’s ports report a 19.5% Q1 tonnage jump on AfCFTA momentum.