AGP Executive Report

Eskom LNG push: South Africa’s Eskom signed a Heads of Agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal to secure LNG import, storage and regasification for its stalled 3,000MW Richards Bay gas-to-power plan, aiming to bridge a looming gas supply squeeze as Mozambique output is expected to fall sharply through 2028. Dangote refinery momentum: Dangote’s refinery hit 700,000 bpd in a performance test, lifting exports of petrol, diesel and jet fuel and reshaping Africa’s fuel trade routes as the company targets 1.4 million bpd expansion. Solar supply boost: Tongwei solar PV panels entered South Africa via preferred distribution deals with SOLARWORLD Africa and IBC Solar, supporting commercial, industrial and utility-scale projects. Finance for infrastructure: Africa Finance Corporation raised a record $2bn syndicated loan to scale integrated infrastructure and industrial platforms across Africa. Food security shock: The UN warned Middle East war-driven oil price spikes and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are already translating into higher global hunger risk. Climate + youth focus: World Environment Day messaging stressed investing in youth-led, practical climate action and agroforestry. Morocco recovery funding: The EIB mobilised €500m for quake-hit areas in Morocco, with reconstruction aligned to higher seismic-resilience and energy-efficiency standards.

Gas-to-power momentum: Eskom signed an agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal to back a Richards Bay LNG import facility and support a planned 3,000MW gas-fired power station, part of a broader push to add 6,000MW of gas generation by 2030. Regional gas infrastructure: Algeria, Nigeria and Niger began a new phase of work to complete the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, aiming to move 20–30 bcm of Nigerian gas annually to Algeria despite long-running Sahel security and financing hurdles. Power and renewables deals: Lesotho signed a binding deal with US firm Convalt Energy for a Kobong hydropower plus AI data centre project worth about $6.2bn, while South Africa’s SOLARWORLD and IBC SOLAR announced Tongwei solar PV modules for the fast-growing C&I solar market. Energy market signals: Nigeria’s Lagos depot operators cut diesel loading prices below Dangote’s benchmark as competition in the deregulated market intensifies. Climate finance debate: The AfDB rejected claims that Liberia’s carbon trading plans were a precondition for Bank support, as civil society warns the policy is being rushed. Energy transition skills gap: A new argument says climate delivery stalls less from tech and money, more from education and implementation capacity. Oil supply logistics: Japan said crude from Alaska and South Sudan will arrive as Hormuz risks reshape sourcing.

Climate Risk & Insurance: Britam says it paid Sh97.3m in 2025 claims to 402,681 farmers and livestock keepers across Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania as drought and erratic weather bite harder. Power Distribution Reform: South Africa’s National Treasury is pushing an Eskom municipal takeover model that could expand to 30 municipalities, amid R114bn in arrear debt. Oil & Gas Accountability: South Africa’s Western Cape High Court reserved judgment on a West Coast offshore seismic survey challenge, with fishers and green groups arguing risks to marine life and livelihoods. Renewables Deal: Inox Clean Energy will buy Vena Energy India’s 6 GW renewables portfolio, lifting its operating/near-operational base to ~4 GW and pipeline beyond 12 GW. Refining Milestone: Nigeria’s Dangote refinery says it processed 700,000 bpd in a capacity test, targeting 1.4m bpd within 30 months. Energy Diplomacy: Nigeria urged deeper Africa–South Korea cooperation in green energy and health security at the Korea-Africa foreign ministers’ meeting in Seoul. Nuclear for Industry & Health: Necsa outlined plans to rejuvenate South Africa’s nuclear sector, while regional health regulators met in Nairobi on safe nuclear and radiation use in healthcare.

Oil & Gas Policy: Nigeria’s NUPRC says President Tinubu has approved the 2026 oil and gas licensing round, targeting a launch in Q3 as preparations for the 2025 round near completion. Power & Storage: UAE’s AMEA Power signed EPC contracts for Egypt’s 1,500MWh BESS build-out (500MWh Horus in Zafarana and 1,000MWh Nefertiti in Benban), with Egypt aiming to scale storage capacity. Renewables Waste: Solar recycling is being pushed as an urgent policy gap, with calls to fund end-of-life treatment at the point of purchase as panels last decades. Grid Tech: Latvia’s AdvanGrid is pitching sensor-led, real-time monitoring to cut electricity waste and improve energy management. Mining for Clean Tech: Mozambique signed reforms giving the state at least 15% free-carried, non-dilutable stakes across mining ventures and tightening rules on exporting unprocessed minerals. Governance Watch: Liberia’s Senate moves to clarify a dispute over petroleum reconnaissance licensing, warning unresolved issues could hit investor confidence. Fuel Costs: South Africa’s jet fuel surcharge is falling again as Jet A1 availability improves, while broader fuel-price pressure remains tied to Middle East supply shocks.

Gas & Oil Infrastructure: Algeria has started construction on its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 4,128-km project meant to move up to 30 bcm/year of gas from Nigeria through Niger to Algeria’s Mediterranean coast for European export. Upstream Deals: Europa Oil & Gas’ farm-out for offshore Equatorial Guinea is approved by the country’s mining ministry, with the deal still awaiting China’s ODI clearance; if it closes, the Barracuda-1 gas well could spud in early 2027 with Fuhai funding 95% of costs up to $53m. Power & Grid Access: The World Bank says West Africa’s regional power integration programme has built 4,000+ km of transmission lines across 15 countries, lifting cross-border electricity trade and expanding access to power for 3+ million people since 2019. EV & Storage Momentum: South Africa’s first off-grid solar EV fast-charging station on the N3 is now operating, while broader battery storage growth continues to accelerate as grids and AI-driven demand push new investment. Policy & Jobs: South Africa’s Ramaphosa flagged youth unemployment as a crisis and pledged R1 trillion over three years, including energy and logistics infrastructure, as unemployment remains elevated.

Energy Policy & Industry: South Africa’s SANEA rebranded at its AGM, adopting a new logo and “Guiding inclusive energy progress” slogan while tightening board rotation rules to keep continuity as the energy landscape shifts. EV & Mobility Investment: Spiro raised $215m in equity to expand its electric vehicle and battery-swapping network across seven countries, targeting more markets including DRC and Ethiopia. Hydrogen Push: Toyota South Africa, DSTI and HySA handed over a locally built mobile hydrogen refuelling station to North-West University to support hydrogen mobility and a standards-compliant ecosystem. Renewables for Health: Ghana’s MINAGIE Energy deployed a hybrid wind-solar microgrid delivering 6,000+ hours of clean power to rural health centres, cutting diesel costs and supporting vaccine refrigeration. Grid & Storage Planning: Oman opened technical bids for a 1,000MW/4-hour battery storage advisory tender, a step toward large-scale BESS delivery. Oil & Trade Shocks: The EBRD warned that Middle East conflict-driven energy shocks are slowing growth across parts of Africa and emerging Europe. Global Energy Risk: UN researchers said AI’s electricity and water footprint is surging, with prompt brevity potentially cutting chatbot energy use.

Middle East Energy Shock: South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa warned that the US-Israel attack on Iran is disrupting the global economy and driving an oil crisis that will hit inflation and the cost of living, as fuel prices and interest-rate expectations tighten. Monetary Policy & Inflation: Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago defended the latest rate hike, arguing policymakers must act before fuel-price shocks feed into longer-term inflation expectations. Credit Ratings Watch: Bank of America expects possible further South Africa credit upgrades, but says investment grade remains unlikely without stronger fiscal rules. Growth Risk From Oil: S&P Global flagged South Africa as an “outlier” with weak growth, leaving it exposed to Middle East oil price shocks that could squeeze households and tax revenue. Power Reliability Beyond Eskom: A report highlighted that municipal electricity failures are poorly recorded, even though they can be as damaging as Eskom outages for low-income communities. Clean Transport Push: Spiro secured $215m to expand Africa’s electric mobility and energy infrastructure, betting on battery swapping and local rollout. Shipping Disruption: U.S. forces disabled another Iran-linked tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring how chokepoint risks are reshaping global trade routes.

LNG Shipping Upgrade: Nigeria LNG’s Bonny Gas Transport ordered three new LNG vessels from Chinese shipbuilders, boosting fleet renewal with 174,000 m³ ships due in 2029. Middle East Shock to Energy Inputs: UN warns the Iran-linked disruption is still roiling humanitarian supply chains and costs across Africa, with knock-on effects from stalled Gulf shipping routes. Food-Fertilizer Squeeze: A report links Middle East fighting to higher fertilizer prices and shortages by disrupting Gulf nitrogen and sulfur supplies, raising the risk of food insecurity. Kenya Floriculture Expo: Kenya’s flower industry opened its Nairobi trade exhibition, pushing market diversification and highlighting renewable energy and water-saving investments. Zimbabwe Manufacturing Push: Zimbabwe launched a women-led manufacturing association as China’s zero-tariff policy (from May 1) promises duty-free access to China for 53 African countries. South Africa Business Mood: RMB/BER’s confidence index fell to 39 as Middle East tensions lifted oil and fuel costs and shifted expectations toward possible rate hikes. South Africa Fiscal Signal: Treasury DG Pieterse said fiscal credibility is improving, with debt stabilising and borrowing costs easing—though energy and oil shocks remain a key stress test.

Power & Renewables: Zimbabwe says electricity imports fell 44% to $117m in 2025 as Hwange Thermal units 7 and 8 came online, while new solar capacity is joining the grid (including a 10MW Munyati plant targeting 100MW). Energy Security & Climate: South Africa’s climate plan gets a boost from a Germany-backed Just Energy Transition loan (~R3.8bn) aimed at accelerating solar and wind as fossil fuels still drive most emissions. Grid & Access (Nigeria): Nigeria has received at least $3.653bn in World Bank-backed power funding since 2001, but blackouts and generator dependence persist. E-mobility: Ethiopia is rolling out electric buses after banning imports of gasoline and diesel vehicles, positioning cleaner urban transport as a climate and air-quality win. Critical Minerals & Industry: The EU launches its first South Africa investment roadshow to turn €12bn into projects in critical minerals and clean energy, while Congo’s Kasai Corporation pitches partnerships to turn mineral wealth into broader development. Maritime Energy Risk: With Iran-US tensions rising, attention shifts to Bab al-Mandab as a potential pressure point for oil and LNG shipping, echoing Hormuz disruption fears. Oil & Shipping Sanctions: France detained a Russia-linked “shadow fleet” tanker in the Atlantic, underscoring ongoing sanctions-busting pressure. Local Energy Conflict: West Coast fishers in South Africa challenge seismic surveys, warning the work could threaten livelihoods and food security. West Africa Mining & Power: Ghana, Nigeria and Mali ministers will speak at WAMPEX in Accra, spotlighting responsible mining and power for Sahel development.

Fuel Price Shock (South Africa): South Africa’s June pump update lifts petrol 93/95 by R1.43/l from June 3, while diesel drops by R3.24/l and illuminating paraffin falls by R5.96/l, as Brent rises and the Strait of Hormuz closure keeps pressure on crude. EU Investment Push (Critical Minerals & Energy): The EU kicks off a €12bn South Africa roadshow at the JSE to turn pledges into projects, with a focus on clean energy, transmission, minerals value chains and clean fuels. Korea-Africa Minerals & Supply Chains: Korea’s foreign minister meeting with 50 African countries in Seoul signals deeper cooperation on critical minerals, energy security and supply chains, with a second summit planned for 2029. Nigeria Downstream Price Competition: Private depots in Nigeria cut petrol prices after Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s latest reduction, intensifying a domestic fuel price war. Energy Transition Reality Check (South Africa): Research challenges claims that rooftop solar is a “cash cow,” arguing cost shifts and policy tensions are more complex than the debate suggests. Financing Shift (Africa Businesses): A new report says private credit is overtaking equity as venture funding tightens, pushing revenue-linked and structured debt financing.

Power Tariff Relief for Industry: South Africa’s Nersa approved new electricity tariffs and eased “take-or-pay” rules for ferrochrome smelters, helping Glencore-Merafe halt layoff plans and giving Eskom a short-term revenue lifeline. Oil Market Shock from Hormuz: With Iran war risks keeping Strait of Hormuz disruptions elevated, analysts warn exports may not return to prior levels, reshaping shipping and oil pricing. Ghana Skills & Fuel Distribution: Vivo Energy Ghana signed an MoU with the Applied Technology Institute to expand technical apprenticeships for mechanics under its Mechanic Advocacy Programme. Ghana-EU/Asia Energy Link-Up: South Korea and Africa foreign ministers met in Seoul to strengthen cooperation on supply chains, energy and food security amid Middle East instability. Renewables Push: Oman’s O-Green plans a 58 MW wind pilot in Duqm to support industrial decarbonisation, while UN-Habitat reports more African cities are embedding climate actions into national plans. Climate Risk Backdrop: UN projections warn global temperatures are likely to stay near record highs over the next five years, raising pressure on Africa’s energy and resilience planning.

Clean Cooking Push: AfDB-backed Rome Process/Mattei Plan Financing Facility launched a clean cooking programme in Brazzaville with an initial €25m envelope, aiming to reach about 1 million African households and cut 5m tonnes of CO2. Grid & Industry Relief: South Africa’s Nersa approved electricity pricing relief for major smelters, including a 62c/kWh interim discounted tariff for ferrochrome producers Samancor Chrome and Glencore–Merafe, plus Eskom tariff tweaks to protect jobs. Northern Kenya Power Build: President Ruto commissioned a Habaswein solar PV–BESS–diesel hybrid plant for 8,565 households and said KSh8.4bn will connect 53,300+ homes across Wajir, Mandera and Garissa. Gas-to-Industry Incentives: Jordan’s PM ordered incentives for the al-Rawdah Industrial Zone (preferential electricity tariffs, land and jobs support) until it’s supplied via the Arab Gas Pipeline. Zimbabwe Gas Deal: Zimbabwe signed a petroleum production sharing agreement for the Cabora Bassa Basin, setting a framework for Invictus/Geo Associates’ Muzarabani gas project after drilling confirmed liquids-rich potential. Energy Security & Food Risks: FAO warned Strait of Hormuz disruptions could deepen a global food security crisis in 2026-27, with fertilizer and shipping shocks hitting Africa hardest. Storage for Renewables: South Africa’s battery energy storage is highlighted as key to stabilising grids as renewables expand and to improve economics by shifting solar output.

CNG Push in Nigeria: President Tinubu commissioned four Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) infrastructure projects under the MDGIF, including a 96,000 standard cubic metres/day mother station in Lagos and new refuelling stations in Abuja, aiming to cut transport costs and accelerate cleaner fuel use. Fuel Price Signals in South Africa: Reports say June 2026 petrol and diesel could fall thanks to strong over-recoveries, but the government’s partial return of the fuel levy may blunt the relief for motorists. Power Access Pressure in Kenya: Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi warned contractors on the Last Mile Connectivity Program that delays could trigger contract termination, as electrification remains a key rural growth lever. LNG/Port Gas Moves in South Africa: Transnet signed operator agreements for LNG import terminal work at Ngqura, reinforcing the country’s push to diversify gas supply. Regional Logistics for Trade: Nigeria extended its East and Southern Africa air cargo corridor with RwandAir to Kigali, Harare and Lusaka, with rates under $2/kg, while Kenya and Kazakhstan explored linking the Middle Corridor to Mombasa and Lamu ports. Renewables and Storage in Egypt-China Ties: China-Egypt cooperation marked 70 years with continued investment in solar, wind and storage, including large PV-plus-storage buildouts supporting Egypt’s rising electricity demand.

Nigeria Clean Transport Push (CNG): President Tinubu virtually commissioned four Compressed Natural Gas projects across Lagos, Abuja and Owerri under the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund, positioning gas as the backbone of lower-cost mobility after subsidy removal. South Africa Power Integrity: Eskom escalated its anti-corruption drive by bringing in external forensic investigators to clear a backlog of fraud and irregularities, with AI planned to support the process. Oil Refining Export Leap (Dangote): S&P Global reports Dangote Refinery became the world’s biggest jet fuel exporter in April and plans a further $10bn expansion after reaching full capacity, aiming to diversify crude feedstocks. EV Policy Signal (Nigeria): Nigeria reaffirmed support for EV growth via local-content and technology-transfer priorities through the EVAMAN platform. Energy Shock Spillovers (Zimbabwe): Zimbabwe’s mining and manufacturing are hit by electricity shortages and higher global oil prices tied to Middle East disruptions, forcing diesel reliance and intermittent output. Macro Headwinds (South Africa): The SARB raised the repo rate to 7% and flagged scenarios of prolonged Middle East strain, El Niño dryness and food/fuel shocks. PGM Market Risk: Analysts warn platinum group metals face a “supply trap” as production concentrates in South Africa and Russia amid underinvestment and shifting demand.

Municipal Power Finance: Johannesburg secured a R3.8bn KfW loan (15 years, fixed 8.56%) to tackle its electrical infrastructure backlog, with repayments starting in 2031 to support City Power’s cash flow and metering/network upgrades. Ghana-Russia Energy & Trade: Ghana’s President John Mahama will attend the Oct 28-29 Russia-Africa Summit, with Accra eyeing investment in energy security, agribusiness, and digital tech. Nigeria Fuel Relief Watch: Hopes of lower fuel prices in Nigeria rose as global crude eased amid Iran-US-Israel tensions, with Dangote Refinery cited as key to product availability and stability. Power Sector Reform in Nigeria: The World Bank confirmed Nigeria’s $500m DISREP will continue, backing metering and distribution performance for DisCos. South Africa Grid & Rates: Eskom appointed telecoms veteran Junaid Munshi to lead distribution from 1 June as municipal debt and unbundling pressures mount; meanwhile the SARB lifted rates to 7% amid Iran-war inflation risks. Renewables Funding Push: UNCTAD says the renewable transition needs $1tn+ annually by 2030, warning developing economies face barriers without stronger FDI and clean-tech access. Just Transition Pressure: Sasol’s just-transition report flags major restructuring risks and job impacts across Secunda/Sasolburg as gas feedstock dynamics shift. EV Logistics Decarbonisation: Kenya’s Browns Plantations launched 30 electric trucks to cut emissions and improve estate logistics, targeting renewable power sourcing by 2030. Oil Market Shock: Japan’s crude imports plunged to the lowest since 1979 as Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut Middle East supply, forcing deeper refinery cuts and diversifying imports.

Helium Exploration: Noble Helium outlined its Tanzania “green helium” plan, targeting Rift Valley rocks with a near-term drill campaign using a fit-for-purpose rig and a staged approach of two firm wells plus optional follow-ons. Renewables & Grid: South Africa’s Doornhoek 120MW solar PV project (AMEA Power with local women-led partners) has reached commercial operation under BW6, backed by Standard Bank debt and IDC equity. Distributed Solar Policy: Ghana moved to scale rooftop solar with a national net-metering framework to let households and businesses sell excess power back to the grid, alongside mini-grids and off-grid expansion. Energy Finance: Afreximbank reported a 25% jump in Q1 net income to $268.9m and launched a $10bn facility to cushion African economies from Gulf crisis shocks. Mining-to-Power Push: Zimbabwe’s raw mineral export ban is driving private investment in captive power and beneficiation, with firms expected to generate close to 1,000MW to support industrialisation. Oil & Gas Outlook: The African Energy Chamber expects Africa’s upstream sector to grow in 2026, projecting about 11.4m barrels of oil equivalent per day and higher capex, with some investors eyeing South America too.