AGP Executive Report

South Africa’s Power Shift: The government is prioritising batteries and gas in a 9.6GW procurement push, even as national supply improves while many households still lack reliable electricity. D3 Energy’s gas project also gained Strategic Integrated Project status, strengthening its position in the country’s infrastructure plans. Refining and Oil: Kenya selected Honeywell and Engineers India for a proposed $16 billion refinery, while Nigeria opened a licensing round offering 40 oil blocks and reported output of 1.82 million barrels a day. Regional Grids: A new partnership involving FIS-RDC, EnPower, Trafigura and Gridworks aims to build a power interconnector serving the DRC’s copperbelt. Fuel Costs: South Africa’s latest record price increases are adding pressure on freight, supply chains and consumers.

Zambia’s Solar Surge: Installed power capacity has climbed to 4,722 MW, with solar reaching 1,027.5 MW—already above the country’s 2026 target. Officials say transmission and distribution investment must catch up. South Africa’s Grid Pivot: With surplus electricity at some times, the government is prioritising battery storage and gas-to-power to stabilise the grid and make better use of supply. Nigeria’s Oil Push: The regulator has opened a licensing round offering 40 oil blocks as production rises; President Tinubu says reforms could unlock $50 billion in deepwater investment. Refining Across East Africa: Kenya and Uganda have approved local investors’ participation in Dangote Refinery’s IPO, part of the company’s regional expansion plans. Solar Growth: Africa is projected to install a record 17 GW of solar this year, while Nigeria has launched a $300 million fund for distributed renewable power. Fuel Pressure: South African petrol has topped R30 a litre as higher global oil prices add to household and transport costs.

Nigeria Industrial Push: President Tinubu told manufacturers Nigeria will stop being Africa’s “warehouse” and become the continent’s “industrial workshop,” as he flags financing and operating costs still weighing on output. East Africa Refining Boost: Afreximbank says Dangote’s 700,000 bpd Lamu refinery will conserve Kenya’s foreign exchange and cut exposure to distant supply chains. Kenya Manufacturing Cost Pressure: Unilever invested Sh70m in an 800kW solar system in Nairobi, aiming to cover about 30% of power needs and cut energy costs, while switching boilers from HFO to biomass. South Africa Fuel Shock: Petrol and diesel prices rose again, with renewed calls for fuel-levy relief as households feel the squeeze. Nigeria Upstream Capital Drive: NUPRC opened the 2026 licensing round with 40 oil blocks as output hit 1.82mbpd, seeking fresh investment. Solar Data Gap: A new analysis argues Africa’s solar boom is bigger than official stats, driven by distributed systems. Regional Macro Outlook: The World Bank lifted Sub-Saharan Africa’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3% but warned job creation and poverty reduction lag.

Renewables & Industry: Unilever says it has commissioned an 800kW solar system at its Nairobi factory, expected to supply ~30% of electricity and cut annual energy costs by about Sh30m, alongside a shift from heavy fuel oil to biomass that helped cut emissions ~40% versus 2023. Oil & Gas Resilience: At an Energy Intelligence Forum, TotalEnergies, Aramco and Kuwait Petroleum stressed “just-in-case” planning as US-Iran tensions disrupt routes, citing redundancy in pipelines and the value of owned tanker fleets. Shipping Costs: Crude tanker rates keep climbing, with the Saudi Arabia–China VLCC benchmark hitting a new all-time high of $1.33m/day as the Hormuz “works” effect cascades into other routes. Power Access Reform: South Africa’s electricity minister says only 1.7m of 2.8m indigent households received free basic electricity, prompting smart-meter rollout, front-loaded allocations and possible direct transfers to Eskom for administration. East Africa Oil Oversight: Uganda’s MPs toured EACOP and other petroleum projects in Uganda and Tanzania, with EACOP reported at ~92% completion ahead of first oil. Solar Investment: Orb Energy secured $2m from KawiSafi Ventures to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa, starting with Kenya. Regional Power Trade: Ghana’s Volta River Authority urged continued electricity supply to Togo and Benin despite domestic shortages, warning against “selfish” export cutbacks. Nigeria Upstream Transparency: Nigeria’s VP Shettima said an oil block was awarded to a “friend” with no political connections through open bidding, as Tinubu also flagged reduced crude revenue dependence. Energy Diplomacy: Algeria’s APPO chief highlighted Algerian hydrocarbon expertise and training as a conduit for African energy cooperation at NAPEC.

Helium Prospecting in South Africa: D3 Energy says remedial cementing restored gas flow at its NGT245 E well in the Free State, confirming 5.2% helium in samples (with methane at 49.7%, to be retested). Fuel Price Shock in South Africa: Petrol prices are set to breach R30/l from Wednesday, with 93-octane up to R29.88 and 95-octane to R30.25 inland; diesel also rises, prompting fresh calls for fuel levy cuts. Illicit Diesel Concern: South Africa’s Fuels Industry Association warns “illicit” diesel may include up to 600 million litres of paraffin blended into the diesel pool. Regional Power Stability: Eskom reports load reduction easing in Gauteng, with outages continuing in selected areas and a phased plan to end load reduction by 2027. East Africa Refinery Push: Kenya’s Ruto met South Sudan’s Kiir, highlighting the Dangote East Africa Refinery in Lamu as a regional trade and energy catalyst. UAE Investment Signals: UNCTAD data shows UAE outward FDI hit $63.353bn in 2025, spanning energy, ports and logistics.

Fuel Price Shock (South Africa): South Africans brace for petrol above R30 a litre from Wednesday as DMPR links the jump to US–Iran tensions, Strait of Hormuz supply uncertainty, higher shipping costs and lower inventories; 95 unleaded is set to rise by about R3.33 to ~R30.25 inland, with diesel climbing to record levels, raising fears of queues and renewed panic buying. Regional Trade & Infrastructure (Zambia/DRC/Angola): President Hichilema and Finance Minister Musokotwane push the Lobito Corridor as an AfCFTA accelerator, aiming to turn it into an export-led industrial corridor that boosts jobs, productivity and FDI. Energy Investment & Exploration (Egypt): EGAS and Chevron sign an $88m deal for Mediterranean Lotus block exploration, including two wells and 3D seismic reprocessing. Local Energy Logistics (Angola): CABSHIP founder João Filipe wins African Energy Week’s lifetime achievement award for building Angola’s indigenous logistics and offshore support capacity. Social Sector PPPs (Africa): ECA, AfDB and ALSF call for better PPP project preparation and new financing models so governments can expand affordable education, health, housing, water and energy without unsustainable costs. Distributed Solar (Kenya): Businesses add 72.8MW of captive solar for own use, lifting self-generation to 676.6MW as firms seek reliable power and lower bills.

Geopolitics & Energy: A new wave of “economic statecraft” is reshaping global energy and trade, with wars, AI, and financing pressures increasingly tied to commodity flows and investment decisions that affect Africa’s resources and markets. Hydrogen Corridor: Algeria’s acting industry minister Slah Zouari says the SouthH2 Southern Hydrogen Corridor is moving to connect North Africa with Europe, with more studies due before a final project version. Downstream Modernisation: SOCAR Downstream has been picked as project management consultant for Congo’s CORAF refinery modernisation, supporting pre-FEED work and deepening Azerbaijan–Congo energy cooperation. Fuel Security & Illicit Trade: South Africa faces a sharp fuel-cost squeeze as petrol is set to break R30/litre, while FIASA warns illegal diesel blending with illuminating paraffin could hit up to 800m litres a year, costing billions in tax losses. Power & Industry Reliability: Kenya’s push for reliable green power highlights geothermal’s role in steady baseload supply for industrial growth and cleaner production credentials. Energy Deals Platform: African Energy Week and Premier Invest’s “deal room” focus on moving projects from opportunity to execution as Africa seeks investment to scale oil, gas, and renewables. Regional Trade Corridors: Tanzania’s Dar es Salaam Port transit cargo rose 17% in 2025/26, reinforcing East Africa’s role in feeding Central and Southern Africa’s mineral-linked demand.

Youth & Energy Mindset: Nigeria’s Nasir Giwa Mentorship urged young people to swap social-media arguments for skills, collaboration and solution-driven ventures, echoing a broader push for energy-linked job creation. Energy Security Push (Namibia): A Namibia energy conference called for stronger energy security and affordability, stressing that resource development must be backed by geopolitical stability. Red Sea & Nile Politics (Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia): The Alamein Joint Declaration sets a unified stance on Red Sea governance and rejects unilateral Nile actions, while Egypt’s PM says Cairo wants a diplomatic solution to the Nile dam dispute. Nile Diplomacy (Senegal): Senegal’s president backed Egypt’s approach to managing shared waters via consultation and “avoid harm” principles. Nigeria Gas Revenue Scrutiny: SERAP urged President Tinubu to investigate alleged ₦94.4bn in unremitted or unaccounted petroleum funds tied to the Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund and NUPRC. Fuel Subsidy Fight (Nigeria): Omoyele Sowore vowed to reverse fuel subsidy removal on day one in 2027, calling it a scam. East Africa Refinery Watch (Kenya): Kenya’s Thirdway Alliance demanded full disclosure of the Dangote Lamu refinery contract, while Uganda’s Museveni backed more refineries but said Uganda won’t commit money until Tanzania’s Tanga status is clear. Oil Market Signals: OPEC+ kept November oil output targets unchanged, extending a pause in quota changes.

Capital Mobilisation: At Egypt’s Alamein Africa Forum, African leaders urged unlocking more local and Gulf-linked capital, arguing intra-Africa trade is still too low and private-sector ties must shift from outside the continent to regional partners. Nile Dams Row: Ethiopia’s water minister pushed back on Egypt’s calls for consent, saying upstream states have rights under international law and that Ethiopia’s Megech dam is for irrigation and water supply. Industrial Push: Zimbabwe’s COMESA chairmanship is set to spotlight Bulawayo’s manufacturing and energy-linked value chains, aiming to attract investment into regional supply networks. Pensions as Fuel for Growth: Uganda’s pension assets hit about Shs36tn, with speakers arguing retirement savings can become long-term “patient capital” for infrastructure and productive investment. E-Mobility Acceleration: Africa E-Mobility Week urged faster rollout of EV value chains, charging readiness, finance and skills to cut fossil-fuel dependence and boost local minerals value. Oil Shock in the Region: South Sudan warned Sudan’s war is disrupting crude exports via Port Sudan, threatening a key revenue lifeline. Kenya Jet Fuel Competition: Rubis surged to 33.6% of Kenya’s jet fuel market share, widening the gap over rivals. South Africa Fuel Pain: South Africans face another fuel-price hit, with petrol projected to cross R30 a litre in October.

Gas & Power Market Signals: GECF data shows global pipeline gas imports up 1% Jan–Aug 2026 to 409 bcm, with EU demand rising on reconfigured supply (not random swings) while China’s pipeline reliance eased. Clean Cooking Push: Kenya joined the Clean Cooking Alliance, aiming to accelerate access ahead of the 2027 Africa Clean Cooking Summit in Nairobi. West Africa Energy Diplomacy: ECOWAS, EU and GIZ launched a regional energy governance and information system for West Africa, targeting better coordination. Senegal Gas & Algeria’s Expansion: Sonelgaz signed two MOUs with Senelec to transfer know-how across power and gas infrastructure, sparking debate as Senegal moves toward gas. Oil & Refining Industrialization: At Egypt’s Alamein forum, Al-Sisi met Dangote to discuss investments in energy, fertilizer and cement; business leaders urged value addition and warned about an “African scale penalty” from fragmented rules. Nigeria Oil Policy: Petroleum minister Lokpobiri defended Tinubu-era reforms, citing 80%+ crude output growth and calling petrol subsidy financially unsustainable. Energy Access & Finance: Afreximbank extended a EUR 40m revolving working capital facility to Cameroon’s Prometal SA to boost local steel value chains. Fuel Security in Gabon: Gabon announced temporary diesel rationing in Greater Libreville, with a return to normal expected after an incoming shipment.

East Africa Refining Push: Aliko Dangote’s planned $17bn Lamu refinery is already reshaping Kenya’s maritime outlook, with early construction cargo boosting Lamu Port activity and expected gains for vessel traffic and petroleum logistics. Policy & Power Market: South Africa’s Eskom is courting cryptocurrency miners with a discounted tariff to absorb surplus electricity, as it prepares for excess capacity from renewables. Gas & Power Regulation: Namibia’s NMDPRA is set to launch a digital gas distribution licensing auction, aiming to speed up market development. Energy Finance & Deals: Zambia’s ZDA targets over $5bn in investment and deals at December’s Invest-Zambia International Conference, signaling continued appetite for infrastructure and energy-linked projects. Water & Regional Tensions: Ethiopia’s water position is back in focus after Egypt’s Aswan Dam legacy was cited as a unilateral, disruptive precedent in the GERD debate. Industry Pressure: Dangote Group urges Nigeria to boost domestic production and cut fuel import dependence to strengthen resilience.

Fuel Price Shock: South Africa is bracing for another petrol spike, with 95 octane tipped to break R30 a litre for the first time as projected increases push inland prices to about R30.13 and diesel toward record levels. Grid Investment: South Africa’s Department of Electricity and Energy and National Treasury reaffirmed commitment to the Independent Transmission Projects Programme, updating procurement for Phase I as the country seeks faster grid expansion to connect new generation. Tariff Pressure: Earthlife Africa and community groups have filed objections to Eskom’s proposed 8.8% tariff hike, warning it will squeeze already-stressed households and urging stronger public participation at Nersa. Regional Trade Hit by Transport Costs: The South African Reserve Bank links higher fuel-driven transport costs to weaker agricultural exports to neighbours in Q2 2026, weighing on products like wheat flour and vegetable outputs. Clean Energy Corridor: Tunisia’s minister says the Southern Hydrogen Corridor is strategic clean-energy infrastructure linking North Africa to Europe. Gas/Power Security: Mauritania condemned attacks on Saudi Arabia’s “Taiba” power plant serving the Prophet’s Mosque, calling it an assault on holy sites. El Niño Food Risks: El Niño is strengthening and could lift costs for coffee and other foods, with drought and flood impacts expected across multiple regions.

LNG & Gas Markets: Europe pulled in the biggest LNG volumes in four months in September as it rushed to refill inventories for winter, with LNG flows into the EU gas grid rising 15% month-on-month to about 10.6 bcm. South Africa Fuel Shock: South African motorists face record petrol pain, with 95-octane projected to jump by about R3.21 to around R30.13 a litre next week, while diesel under-recoveries also point to further price spikes. East Africa Refining Push: Kenya’s Lamu refinery project broke ground with Dangote saying it will be ready by 2030 despite local land protests, aiming for 700,000 bpd capacity and a new industrial chapter for the region. Power Supply Plans (Nigeria): Nigeria is moving to create special energy zones to support 24/7 electricity in major industrial corridors, with DisCos expected to participate. Cyber/OT Security: OPSWAT and Redington partnered to expand critical infrastructure protection across the Middle East, Türkiye, Africa and the CIS, targeting cyber risk for energy and other operational technology environments.

East Africa Refining Push: Aliko Dangote’s $16bn, 700,000 bpd Lamu refinery broke ground in Kenya, with President William Ruto saying Lamu beat Tanga after technical studies on water and harbour depth; Afreximbank called it a major step for energy security and cutting imported refined fuel. Regional Fuel Security: Tanzania and Uganda advanced a refined-products infrastructure project at Chongoleani, Tanga, handing the site to Worley for feasibility work to support EACOP-linked crude and reduce import dependence. Nigeria Oil & Investment Signals: Chevron reaffirmed long-term commitment to Nigeria on its 66th Independence Day, citing exploration, infill drilling and production upgrades. Green Finance Gap: Nigeria’s Vice-President Kashim Shettima said the country needs about $410bn extra investment by 2060 to hit its net-zero pathway, urging private capital and risk-sharing. Solar Dealmaking: KawiSafi Ventures invested $2m in Orb Energy to expand commercial and industrial solar across East Africa. Policy Scrutiny: The EU parliament urged tighter scrutiny of aid programmes in Africa to ensure measurable, sustainable benefits.

East Africa Refining Push: Kenya has officially started construction of Dangote’s US$16bn Lamu refinery and petrochemicals complex, targeting up to 700,000 bpd and up to 1,000MW of power for regional energy needs, with President William Ruto leading the groundbreaking. Court Challenge: The project’s rollout faces legal headwinds after residents petitioned over land rights, with an interim order halting related activities until a hearing on Oct 14. Regional Fuel Logistics: Kenya also activated a transit route for Rwanda’s refined fuel imports via Mombasa, receiving a first 40,000-tonne diesel and petrol consignment under an EAC energy cooperation framework. Power Reliability in South Africa: Tshwane said it aims to restore electricity to all customers affected by a Watloo substation explosion by Thursday evening, after rain hampered repairs. Fuel Price Pressure: Zambia’s pump prices jumped after tax relief ended, with petrol at K31.46 and diesel at K33.27. Governance & Energy Transition: South Africa’s electricity minister said load reduction is on track to end by March 2027, while Tanzania advanced nuclear plans with renewed focus on uranium development.

Dangote Refinery Push (Kenya): Kenya and Aliko Dangote moved ahead with the $16bn Lamu refinery plan, with security tightened at the groundbreaking venue and officials framing it as a regional energy-security and industrialisation leap; Grid Reliability (Nigeria): Nigeria began building a new ultra-modern National Control Centre for the Independent System Operator in Osogbo to replace a 64-year-old facility and improve real-time grid monitoring; Renewables for Resilience (South Africa): Riversdale in the Western Cape inaugurated a solar-plus-battery project aimed at cutting Eskom reliance and moving toward “energy-independent” operations; Power for Industry (Tanzania): Tanzania’s Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project is credited with boosting generation capacity and supporting industrial demand, especially for mining and refining; Energy Finance & Industry (Afreximbank): Afreximbank approved a €40m revolving working-capital facility for Prometal SA to secure steel raw materials amid scrap shortages; Energy Policy & Transition (Egypt/Nile): Egypt called for Nile Basin cooperation grounded in international law, data sharing and prior notification, linking water security to energy and food planning.