AGP Executive Report

South Africa Energy Governance: South Africa’s Constitutional Court has permanently halted Shell’s Wild Coast offshore oil and gas exploration, dealing another blow to the project after years of legal fights with coastal communities. Renewables Rollout: South Africa’s electricity and energy department is moving to speed renewables by tapping government and state-owned land for future Independent Power Producer Procurement Programmes, aiming to cut land-negotiation friction for investors. Nigeria Gas Infrastructure: A $25bn Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline plan is still stuck, with sources citing lukewarm Nigerian buy-in even after ECOWAS endorsed the revised African-Atlantic Gas Pipeline framework. Oil & Gas Enforcement: Nigeria’s EFCC says it has recovered $60m from Nestoil as part of an ongoing debt investigation involving lenders. Power Market Signals: South Africa’s Eskom reform push faces resistance, with the board slow-walking transmission changes needed for the country’s broader energy overhaul. Critical Minerals & Transition: DRC’s critical minerals remain central to the energy transition, but security and budget pressures continue to shape delivery. Energy Access & Skills: Nigeria commissions a Barefoot Renewable Energy College to build local talent for a renewables-led future. Regional Politics: SADC leaders meet in Durban amid heightened security as anti-immigrant groups plan a march targeting migration policy.

Oil & Gas Leadership: ConocoPhillips, Suncor and Shell reshuffle top executives, with Shell also appointing Felix Farber to lead Low Carbon Solutions. Legal Shock for Offshore Drilling: South Africa’s Constitutional Court permanently blocks Shell’s Wild Coast exploration, a major blow to upstream plans and investor sentiment. Energy Diplomacy & Power: China and South Africa deepen cooperation in electric power and energy as Vice Foreign Minister Miao Deyu meets SA’s deputy minister. Renewables in Focus: A Chinese-backed wind farm in Jordan shows how renewables are scaling to cut reliance on imported gas. Critical Minerals & Conflict: New reporting links lithium expansion in the Sahel to armed-group profiteering and weak governance, raising security risks for the green transition. Regional Water Pressure: South Africa’s water deputy minister says access hit 91.3% under the ANC, but critics point to failing infrastructure and service delivery gaps. Market Watch: Nigeria’s stock market slides as investors sell large caps, while fuel and energy costs remain a key macro pressure point.

North Africa Border Pressure: Morocco detained 111 migrants near Fnideq/Ceuta as police used tear gas to disperse crowds after social media calls for another mass crossing, following the earlier surge that killed dozens. EV and Industrial Shift: Chinese automaker Chery bought Nissan’s former Rosslyn plant near Pretoria, signaling a move from exporting to local production in Africa as EV demand grows. SADC Leadership Push: South Africa takes over the SADC chair ahead of a Durban summit, with migration, trade, critical minerals, industrialisation and security on the agenda. Power Sector Tension: Eswatini unions warned against Eskom restructuring/partial privatisation, fearing higher electricity costs and service risks. Energy-Trade Shock Watch: Strait of Hormuz disruption and El Niño risks are expected to keep global food and fertilizer pressures elevated, with knock-on effects for African supply and prices. Regional Energy Access: A forum in Cameroon-backed East Regional Council signed deals aimed at boosting rural electrification and transport-linked infrastructure.

South Africa Gridlock Risk: South Africa’s renewables push is colliding with transmission limits, with experts warning “gridlock” could stall the green transition as thousands of projects struggle to connect. Tanzania Power Surplus: Tanzania says the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Project is set to add 2,115MW, lifting capacity to about 4,646MW and creating a 2,636MW surplus for cross-border electricity trade ahead of an Aug 22 launch. Eskom Reliability Drive: Eskom says it’s improving system reliability and working to limit outages while turnaround efforts continue, as households and businesses still feel the impact. Nigeria Fuel Price Cuts: Petrol depot prices fell across major Nigerian cities, with Dangote-linked marketers leading cuts in Lagos and other markets. Shell Legal Setback: South Africa’s Constitutional Court has blocked Shell’s Wild Coast offshore exploration, dealing another blow to the company’s plans. Maritime Security: India and Nigeria are deepening naval cooperation, with a Nigerian delegation preparing for talks focused on maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea. Energy Shipping Disruption: An empty LPG tanker paid a record $4.6m to jump the Panama Canal queue as Iran-linked Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep global energy shipping under pressure.

Constitutional Court Shock: South Africa’s Constitutional Court permanently blocks Shell and Impact Africa’s Wild Coast offshore oil and gas exploration, citing serious public participation failures and strengthening community rights. Fuel Cost Pressure: South Africa faces another September fuel shock as petrol and diesel underrecoveries widen, with diesel underrecovery near R3/litre and motorists already paying far more than end-2025. Gas Market Push: Nigeria’s Gas Infrastructure Fund is backing global cooperation to close a $20bn infrastructure gap, as the country races to unlock gas resources. Refining Capital Boost: Africa Finance Corporation leads a $2.5bn equity raise for Dangote Refinery expansion, with the deal reportedly oversubscribed 3.7x and capacity targeted to 1.4m bpd by 2028. Power Sector Reform Debate: South Africa’s Eskom restructuring fight intensifies over whether the new Transmission System Operator should own the grid outright, with concerns about sequencing and system performance. Solar for the Grid-Less: South Africa’s iShack project delivered solar power to 2,000+ shacks in Enkanini, training residents to install, charge and maintain systems. Maritime Risk: Somali piracy is surging off the Horn as ships reroute around Hormuz, hijacking oil tankers in the Gulf of Aden and near Puntland. Energy Market Vision: A West Africa energy market plan argues the region must build integrated market architecture to turn resources into sustained value, targeting $3tn in cumulative transaction value by 2035.

Wild Coast Oil Ruling: South Africa’s Constitutional Court has halted Shell’s offshore oil and gas exploration along the Eastern Cape Wild Coast, citing unlawful licensing and the need for proper public participation. West Africa Fuel Pricing Push: Nigeria’s midstream/downstream regulator says Dangote’s 2024 refinery start-up is reshaping regional fuel supply and is pushing regulators toward a regional refined-products benchmark and trading hub. Dangote Refinery Finance: Africa Finance Corporation led/participated in Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s $2.5bn private placement after repaying a $300m loan; the refinery targets capacity growth to 1.4m bpd by 2028. Gas Deal Expansion: XRG expands its global gas strategy with a Venezuela entry via the Loran-Manatee offshore gas licence, aiming to connect gas to established infrastructure and routes to market. Renewables in Practice: Mainstream Renewable Power’s 50MW C&I Ilikwa PV facility reaches commercial operation, adding to Africa’s growing solar build-out. Energy Access & Industry: Uganda taxi operators plan to start switching to electric taxis in November after a feasibility study, citing rising fuel costs and cleaner transport. Seismic Services: TGS and GTI sign up to pursue integrated offshore seismic acquisition projects across deepwater and shallow-water environments. Digital Sovereignty Pressure: Nigeria’s sovereign cloud push highlights growing demand for local cloud and data-centre capacity, with Namibia watching closely as it plans a national data centre.

Libya Oil Windfall Under Strain: Libya’s biggest proven crude reserves delivered $15.2bn in foreign-currency oil earnings in six months, but production missed targets and IMF warnings point to how windfalls could deepen the country’s crisis. South Africa Power Costs Bite Industry: President Cyril Ramaphosa says electricity reforms must prioritize affordability as high tariffs are forcing energy-intensive firms to cut output and jobs. Coal Still in the Mix: Energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa rejects calls to sideline coal, arguing for a science-backed plan that keeps options open while Eskom faces pressure to compete. Sasol Transition Risk: A UCT study warns decarbonising Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids could mean either a rapid shutdown or a costly, complex transition, with major GDP and job impacts. Kenya Grid Modernisation: Kenya moves to modernise its power grid to better integrate renewables, focusing on smart grids, forecasting, storage and demand flexibility. Dangote Refinery Funding Boost: Africa Finance Corporation leads a $2.5bn oversubscribed equity raise for Dangote’s refinery, targeting expansion toward 1.4m bpd capacity. Climate Shock Signals: Berkeley Earth links a strong El Niño to odds of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record, raising pressure on energy and food systems. Energy Access via Biogas: South Africa’s Limpopo school uses cattle-dung biogas to cut firewood dependence, powering meals for over 1,000 learners. Regional Power & Renewables: SADC reports mixed progress on stability and integration, with weak growth and high youth unemployment still holding back delivery. Electric Trucks Shift with Fuel Prices: Iran-war-linked diesel spikes are driving demand for Chinese heavy e-trucks across South and Southeast Asia, as charging and upfront costs remain hurdles.

Renewables & Finance (Ghana): CIPA Holdings Group won Renewable Energy Solutions & Sustainable Infrastructure Company of the Year at Ghana’s 3rd Business Integrity Awards, with founder Kwaku Osei Sarpong also taking a clean-energy financing leadership prize—highlighting the firm’s push to blend policy, capital and project execution for Ghana’s energy transition. Power & Storage (Egypt): Scatec brought Obelisk’s second phase into commercial operation, completing a 1.125GW solar-plus-storage hybrid (100MW/200MWh battery) under a 25-year US-dollar PPA with Egypt’s transmission utility. Cybersecurity (Africa): Check Point reports African organisations averaged 3,237 cyber attacks per week in July, with ransomware up 87% and energy/utilities among the hardest-hit sectors. Water Security (South Africa): Water Security Africa Johannesburg launches a 2026 programme focused on turning water risk management into bankable resilience projects, with investment and implementation front and centre. Oil & Gas (Libya): Drone attacks hit Libya’s oil and electricity infrastructure, including fires at the Zawiya oil complex, as violence threatens efforts to reunify institutions. Regional Transport (East Africa): Kenya and Tanzania renewed efforts to link SGR lines to landlocked neighbours, aiming to improve connectivity for Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi. Mining & Environment (Zambia): A study links a 2025 tailings dam failure to toxic releases into the Kafue River system, with communities still living with contamination impacts.

Red Sea Energy Security: Saudi Arabia has formed a 14-state Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance (MMDA) based in Riyadh to protect shipping routes after Houthi threats to blockade tankers, raising the risk of higher oil and gas costs. Tanzania Clean Cooking Push: Tanzania says it will lean on domestic natural gas to cut reliance on charcoal and firewood, arguing gas is central to energy security and cleaner cooking access. West Africa Market Integration: West Africa’s energy regulators and industry leaders are calling for a harmonised regional settlement facility and cross-border electricity links to unlock a potential $3trn energy market by 2035. Nigeria Refining Costs: Nigeria’s regulators are drafting a new crude pricing and supply template to reduce feedstock costs for domestic refiners by about $3–$4/bbl by cutting intermediaries and reflecting real freight/handling. South Africa Grid & Transition: South Africa’s energy transition is advancing with new grid investment signals and a renewables pipeline, even as economic recovery remains fragile. Deep-Sea Mining Moratorium: Six African countries now back a precautionary pause on deep-sea mining at the International Seabed Authority, citing major science and governance gaps.

Red Sea Energy Security: Saudi Arabia is forming a 14-state maritime coalition to protect oil and trade routes as Houthi threats intensify around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the risk of higher energy costs. Libya Oil & Security: Libya’s LNA intelligence chief Fawzi al-Mansouri was killed in a Benghazi car bombing, while drone attacks have also hit oil infrastructure, underlining how conflict is disrupting energy assets. Ghana Power Buildout: Abu Dhabi-based Global South Utilities inaugurated a 50MW solar plant in Central African Republic with battery storage, boosting grid capacity and access for households. South Africa Gas Bill Hearings: Parliament’s electricity and energy committee began public hearings on the Gas Bill, with stakeholders pushing for clearer rules, competition, and stronger oversight. Nigeria Oil Output: Nigeria kept crude production above 1.5mbpd for a third month in July, despite a monthly dip, supporting supplies and revenues. Nigeria Offshore Investment Push: Nigeria approved reforms for deepwater oil incentives aimed at unlocking up to $50bn in new offshore investment, starting with Shell’s Bonga South West. Schneider Electric Leadership: Schneider Electric appointed Nicole Malan as VP for Power Systems and Infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa, focusing on energy transition and digital power infrastructure. Ghana Clean Energy Finance Recognition: CIPA Holdings’ Kwaku Osei-Sarpong was recognised for clean energy financing and sustainable infrastructure leadership, highlighting the push to mobilise long-term capital for renewables.

Deep Offshore Reform: Nigeria’s President Tinubu approved a rules-based deep offshore investment framework to replace ad hoc dealmaking, aiming to unlock up to $50bn and restart stalled projects like Shell’s Bonga South West. Regional Fuel Pricing Push: Nigeria’s NMDPRA says West Africa should build a regional refined-products benchmark and trading hub to move from price-taking to price discovery, but warns infrastructure and transparency gaps remain. Libya Oil Security: Drone attacks hit Libya’s Zawiya oil complex and gasoline storage, sparking major fires as NOC reports fragile security around critical energy assets. Oil Market Shock: Oil prices jumped on Middle East shipping attacks and uncertainty over Strait of Hormuz talks, with Brent above $90/bbl. Kenya Refinery Politics: Aliko Dangote urged Kenya to protect his planned Lamu refinery from “cheap fuel dumping,” calling for policy support to secure a stable market. Namibia Energy Strategy: At the Namibia International Energy Conference, speakers framed energy and logistics integration as a path to convert national ambition into execution. Zambia Election Watch: Zambia goes to the polls to test Hichilema’s economic record amid high living costs and a copper-led growth agenda. South Africa Power & Solar: Commercial solar in Cape Town is said to repay in about two years as Eskom tariff increases raise pressure on businesses. Mining Safety & Crackdowns: South Africa police continue probing a North West mine collapse that killed 14 suspected illegal miners, while Mpumalanga raids net more illicit mining suspects.

Libya Oil Security: Drone attacks sparked a major blaze at Libya’s Zawiya oil refinery and gasoline depot, with NOC warning it could declare force majeure; operations were partially shut and fuel supply to western stations was temporarily disrupted. South Africa Power Strain: Cold weather and ageing infrastructure left Johannesburg’s grid overwhelmed, with thousands of outage calls piling up as City Power battles backlog, illegal connections, theft and vandalism. Nigeria Renewables Push: Nigeria’s renewable programmes (Nigeria Electrification Project and DARES) have drawn over $1.3bn in investment commitments, targeting millions of households and MSMEs. West Africa Fuel Market: Regulators say West Africa is moving toward a regional refined-products benchmark and fuel trading hub, using new refining capacity like Dangote’s to improve price discovery. Uganda Rural Electrification Audit: Uganda’s energy ministry faced scrutiny over inconsistent accounting for Sh17.3bn in counterpart funding under a rural electrification project, including gaps in compensation payments to PAPs. Mining Update (Tanzania): Lake Victoria Gold announced a maiden NI 43-101 resource estimate for its Tembo gold project adjacent to Barrick’s Bulyanhulu. Oil & Gas Infrastructure (South Africa): Court challenges continue to test South Africa’s push to turn Saldanha Bay into an oil and gas hub.

South Africa Power Sector: NTCSA says it will clear R1.5bn in solar curtailment claims by end-August, moving to pay producers the full estimated compensation upfront before technical verification after curtailments surged from ~100 a month to 1,000+ earlier this year. South Africa Gas Policy: Industry warns that replacing the 2001 Gas Act with a new Gas Bill won’t fix gas market problems by itself; the real bottlenecks are coordinating supply, infrastructure, financing and demand as the market shifts beyond Mozambique pipeline gas toward LNG, regasification and gas-to-power. South Africa–China Energy Push: South Africa’s energy mission to China drew interest from six equipment makers across transmission, renewables, hydrogen and nuclear, but the delivery test now is turning talks into projects. Nigeria Upstream Outlook: NUPRC expects 22 offshore projects (2026–2030) worth $30bn–$50bn as fiscal and legislative stability boosts investment confidence. Tanzania–Dangote Expansion: Tanzania signals it wants more Dangote investment in fertiliser, energy and industrial infrastructure, following talks tied to the Dangote refinery and petrochemicals. Regional Trade: India–SACU PTA talks are set to start after ToRs are likely signed on Aug 12, with critical minerals and manufacturing on the agenda. Climate & Energy Costs: Kenya’s El Niño outlook is raising planning stakes for power and telecom resilience, while climate-driven malaria risk is also shifting into new regions.

Power Sector Tension in Ghana: The Public Utilities Workers Union (PUWU) says Ghana’s move to appoint a transaction adviser for private-sector participation in ECG and NEDCo breaches trust, arguing the ministry is pushing privatisation without engaging the union’s detailed position paper. Climate Negotiations: African climate negotiators are in Accra for a two-day technical workshop to shape the Global Just Transition Mechanism ahead of COP31, with leaders warning that ambition must translate into concrete proposals on finance, support and institutional independence. Regional Energy Deals: Tanzania reaffirmed interest in expanding Dangote investments, focusing on fertiliser, energy and industrial infrastructure after a follow-up visit to Dangote’s Lagos refinery complex. Uganda Refining Delay: Uganda has delayed the final investment decision for the Kabaale refinery, pushing back the project’s path toward commercial oil production. Industrialisation Debate: A new argument in Africa’s industrialisation discourse frames the challenge as dignity and sovereignty, not just economics—highlighting how commodity dependence can block sustained value creation. Maritime Disruption Watch: El Niño is expected to disrupt ports, with East Africa facing flooding and water-level swings that could affect dredging and operations.

Gas & Helium Exploration: D3 Energy has completed the second well (NGT245 D) in its Nooitgedacht program in South Africa’s Free State, with logging underway and casing installation for the first well (NGT245 E) in progress, as the company targets gas deliverability plus helium and methane concentrations. Oil Market Risk: Shipping and tanker tracking show Saudi oil cargoes being routed via Egypt and the Suez Canal instead of Saudi ports as Houthi attacks and Red Sea security threats persist, underscoring how quickly trade routes can shift. Nigeria Capital Markets: Nigeria is reviving plans to list NNPC on the NGX, with Tinubu reiterating that the full entity—not just parts—will eventually be floated, a move that could reshape investor appetite for the oil sector. Policy & Power Supply: Kenya’s supply chain crisis is squeezing output despite stronger demand signals, with inflation and operational strain cited as key bottlenecks for sustained recovery. Environment & Oil: Research warns Uganda’s oil infrastructure around Lake Victoria’s catchment is degrading wetlands through siltation, pollution and habitat disturbance, raising cross-border ecological concerns.

Energy Security & Shipping: Houthis struck Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery and hit Red Sea assets again, underscoring how the Hormuz standoff is spilling into Africa’s oil routes and raising risks for regional supply. Oil Market Geopolitics: Iran’s push for compensation and sanctions relief is framed as leverage to keep pressure on reopening Hormuz, even as talks edge toward a pause. Power Systems: Malawi commissioned a grid-scale lithium battery project to stabilize solar-heavy electricity after hydropower losses, showing a practical path for climate-exposed grids. Electricity Costs: South Africa’s peak/off-peak pricing debate is back as smart prepaid meters roll out, with households urged to shift usage to cheaper hours. Policy & Workers: Nigeria’s labour union called for a people-centred energy model, arguing energy policy must treat power as a public good to tackle energy poverty. Clean Energy Investment: Europe is betting billions on North Africa’s clean energy potential via Mediterranean interconnection plans, aiming to move renewable power toward European grids. Critical Minerals Scrutiny: A probe flags uranium in DRC cobalt shipments to China, adding pressure on supply-chain transparency for battery metals. Infrastructure Leadership: Namibia’s energy executive Shiwana Ndeunyema was nominated among Africa’s top infrastructure influencers, reflecting growing investor focus on Namibian oil, ports and institutions.